Wednesday late morning Blog: Severe thunderstorms during the evening

Strong to severe thunderstorms this evening.
Wednesday late morning Blog:  Severe thunderstorms during the evening

Good late Wednesday morning! I hope your having a great day so far. Mine has been pretty good. I have been checking out the latest data with this next storm system. Plus, I am getting a few things done around the house before I head into work this afternoon. Warm and windy for us today with mostly cloudy skies. We should warm well into the 70s again with thunderstorms picking up during the evening hours.

Take a look at the radar below.

Most of the day will be dry, windy and warm. We will be pretty unstable as the evening hours arrive. We will be fairly capped (in a sense thunderstorms can’t form) through the day with the cap breaking this evening. Here is our severe weather index for tonight. This is on a scale of 1-10. The higher the number, the better chance that we will have severe thunderstorms.

SE KS: 8

NE OK: 6

SW MO: 5

NW AR 4

Lets start around 6pm this evening.

Wednesday late morning Blog:  Severe thunderstorms during the evening

Isolated supercells will develop across Texas and Oklahoma. These will be very isolated, but there is a chance a couple of these could work into the area by 6 or 7pm. IF THESE WOULD POP UP. They would go severe with large hail, gusty winds and a low tornado threat. Lets move on to about 8pm.

Wednesday late morning Blog:  Severe thunderstorms during the evening

We will still have some isolated supercells, but the main focus will be along the cold front back to our northwest. Thunderstorms will quickly develop from KC southwestward along I-35 to Wichita and back into the panhandle of Oklahoma. These will become severe quickly and affect our SE KS counties. Especially Yates Center, Iola, Chanute. The main threat will be large hail, gusty winds, heavy rains and an isolated tornado. This line will push SE into the rest of SE KS, west central MO and NE OK by late evening. Lets move to about 10pm.

Wednesday late morning Blog:  Severe thunderstorms during the evening

This line continues to push SE. I think it will make it to the I-44 corridor and the metro area from 10pm-midnight. That means most of the Joplin metro stays dry up to this point. EXCEPT, if we get a random pop up supercell during the evening hours as I stated above. As these storms continue to push SE, they will still be fairly intense with the main threat being large hail and strong winds. The tornado threat will stay low but can’t be ruled out. Lets move to about midnight.

Wednesday late morning Blog:  Severe thunderstorms during the evening

Most of the storms should push through the area by 2-3am. The severe threat will mainly shift to south of I-44 after 11-12 tonight. After midnight, the severe threat will drop but we could still have a few storms become severe with gusty winds and hail. Here is a look at 2am.

Wednesday late morning Blog:  Severe thunderstorms during the evening

We will have leftover showers on Thursday morning with temperatures turning cooler. Numerous severe weather chances over the next several weeks. Check out my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

-Doug

Long range forecast through Middle June:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Numbers each week is my severe weather index. The closer to 0 the better. The higher the number the severe weather chances are much greater!

Next Week: Mild to start the week with thunderstorms Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday just showers. Mild the second half of the week with more thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Monday (3), Friday (1).

April 28th-May 4th: Mild the first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. More storms on Thursday and Friday. Sunday (2), Monday (3), Thursday (6), Friday (1).

May 5th-11th: Mainly a mild week with scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday (2), Thursday (2).

May 12th-18th: A warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Then another system works in for the weekend. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday (2), (4) on Saturday.

May 19th-25th: Showers to start the week on Sunday and Monday with mild temperatures. Warming up the second half of the week with Thunderstorms around Thursday. Thursday (4).

May 26th- June 1st: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and then showers on Tuesday. Another strong system rolls in on Thursday and Friday. Sunday (4), Monday (7), Thursday (2), Friday (6).

June 2nd-8th: A warm week with storms on Sunday and Monday. A fast moving system back in on Friday. Sunday (4), Monday (4), Friday (2).

June 9th-15th: A hot start to the week with cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with a storm system working through. This will give us some thunderstorms on Tuesday. Warming back up late in the week. Tuesday (2).

June 16th-22nd: A warm to hot week with storms on Sunday and Monday, then again by the weekend. Monday (3), Friday (3), Saturday (2).

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

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