Wednesday AM Blog: Warming up, but thunderstorms! Plus a look at severe weather dates.
Transition to storms
Good Wednesday AM. I hope your week is going great! Mine has been pretty good so far. I am over only getting an inch of snow, ugh, okay, I am close to it. I have been really looking ahead at storm season. Whether you like it or not, we are going to soar into severe weather season. So, I want to give you bits of info over the next few blogs going into what I expect, exact dates using the HP (Heady Pattern) and much more.
Take a look at the radar below.
Today looks pretty good, mostly sunny and lower 40s. We do have a weak wave that will roll in late Thursday and Friday morning. This will give us clouds and some random showers late Thursday through Friday morning. This is a weak system and not a big deal.
Friday will be a little cool, then we focus on Saturday’s system.
This is a very strong upper level system. This will produce severe weather, but still a little early for us. I am putting us in a slight risk right now. However, I think most of the severe weather will stay SE of us. Next time it roll around on April 29th, will be a much bigger story. Here is a look at the thunderstorms.
I will continue to watch this and see if the system slows a bit. If it does slow a bit that Severe threat will shift farther NE. So lets look at our best chances for severe weather. Of course I am using my long range pattern to project this.
March 29th, April 7th, 10th, 14th, 22nd, 29th, May 2nd, 19th, 24th. We will dig into these more in the next blog.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: A cool start on Sunday. Slowly warming up for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe threat is low but will watch it. Staying pretty cold the rest of the week.
March 17th-23rd: Starting mild with scattered showers on Monday and Tuesday. We could end with a little snow, but chances are low. Then again, mainly cool the rest of the week.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Sunday and Monday. Thunderstorms return on thursday and Friday with a slight chance for severe weather on Friday.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.
May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.
May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.
May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.
Also, we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. We think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone
COPYRIGHT 2020 BY KOAM. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THIS MATERIAL MAY NOT BE PUBLISHED, BROADCAST, REWRITTEN OR REDISTRIBUTED.