Wednesday AM Blog: Warming up, but a wild ride over the week.

Warmer temperatures, ice, snow
Wednesday AM Blog:  Warming up, but a wild ride over the week.

Good Wednesday morning! Are you ready for a couple days a fantastic weather. Partly sunny and highs into the lower 60s today and tomorrow. I will take it. Take a look at the radar below. Not much going on below.

Take a look at the radar below.

Our next wave is late tomorrow. A cold front will roll through late in the day on Thursday. This will drop our temperatures greatly by Friday. Then our next system rolls in on Friday. Take a look at Friday afternoon.

Wednesday AM Blog:  Warming up, but a wild ride over the week.

As of right now, this looks like a freezing rain and sleet situation. We can definitely see some accumulations. I will watch this today and update on this as new data comes in. Another wave comes in late on Saturday.

Wednesday AM Blog:  Warming up, but a wild ride over the week.

This system will be mainly north of the region. We could see a little light wintry mix. However, most of the snow will stay north of us near KC where they will receive a couple inches from this wave. We get into a day or two break ahead of the next wave on Monday night and Tuesday. Lets look at the upper level pattern of this system.

Wednesday AM Blog:  Warming up, but a wild ride over the week.

You can see the system rotating out of the SW US. So lets check where we are at in the Heady Pattern. Lets go back a cycle about 51 days.

Wednesday AM Blog:  Warming up, but a wild ride over the week.

You can see this same system on December 30th. However, that cycle, we didn’t have a ton of cold air. Remember, with the HP (Heady Pattern) every other cycle mirror each other better. So, lets move back another cycle. Lets look at November 11th.

Wednesday AM Blog:  Warming up, but a wild ride over the week.

You can see the exact same system. Why is this important? Well this was our biggest snow of the season with 3-6″ of snow across the Joplin metro. This will be our best shot for accumulating snow for the rest of the season. This should produce a band of snow next Tuesday. Also, most likely at least some accumulations.

Wednesday AM Blog:  Warming up, but a wild ride over the week.

I will keep you updated. Long range forecast through April below.

#headypattern

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cold start to the week with yet another system working in late Monday and Tuesday. This will give us at least decent chances for snow on Tuesday. Staying cold the rest of the week with slight chances for rain and snow on Friday and Saturday.

February 25th-March 2nd: Most of the week will be cool with slight chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday. Warming up late in the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.

March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.

March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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