Wednesday AM Blog: Thunderstorms (strong to severe), winter weather (snow)

Thunderstorms (strong to severe), winter weather (snow)

Good Wednesday morning!  I hope the week is going great!  Mine has been pretty good.  I am mainly just figuring out this upcoming system and then heading out to Boston this weekend as I will be there all next week for a weather conference.  You want to talk about a bunch of weather nerds geeking out, holy moly!  But, I always learn a lot and they are fun.  However, ummmm my flight is during the Chiefs game.  And when you fly out of Joplin, ummmm no wifi.  Oh, I have literally stared out the ceiling fan at night wondering how I am going to get through this one.  On a positive note,  I will land in Chicago by halftime so I can watch the second half waiting on my next flight.

So lets get to the weather.  Another warm and windy day today.  Okay, warm for January, freezing for June.  But we should make it near 60.  Much of the same on Thursday as showers start to develop.  But the main show will show up on Friday.  Showers and thunderstorms will get going.  We will have a very strong arctic front setting up shot just to our north.  Take a look at Friday evening.

We will have rounds of scattered thunderstorms through the day.  By evening as the main front shifts through, we will have a much more intense line of storms develop.  We will have a temperature contrast of 40 degrees across the region.  Our northern counties will be going to freezing rain while our southern counties have the thunderstorms.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  I think the main tornado threat will stay just south, but watching it.  Right now I am going to go south of I-44 with the highest threat.  Also, that threat will be mainly wind and hail.  As this line shifts through we will quickly go over to freezing rain and sleet.  We could get some light icy accumulations.  So some of the roads will get slick.  We will see a brief break before a band of snow with the upper level low rolls through by Saturday morning.

This band of snow should shift out by afternoon, but we will get a band of snow.  Okay, let me rephrase.  Due to the Heady Pattern, we should get some snow.  This is the same system we had back in November, and it gave us snow.  It wasn’t much, about 1/4-1/2″ but this time around it will be a little stronger and a little colder.  So a few inches isn’t out of the question.  We just need to see how it sets up.  Here is a general idea of where the accumulating snow should fall.


Long range forecast through late January:

Next Week: Warming back up early in the week.  We have a weak system on Monday, but I don’t expect much from it.  Our next bigger system rolls in on Wednesday.  This system will give us rain and snow chances.  Staying cool the rest of the week but moderating a bit for the weekend.  Slight chances for rain by Saturday.

January 19th – 25th:  Rain to start the week with our next big system.  Lets see with the colder air working in on Monday with we can go over to snow.  Right after this system, another system on Tuesday.  This system with give us rain and snow chances once again.  We stay cold through the middle of the week.  Temperatures warm a bit with our next system on Friday and Saturday.  This again will be rain over to snow chances.

January 26th – February 1st: Another big system to start the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday, then snow chances on Wednesday.  Cold the rest of the week.

February 2nd-8th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by mid week.  Slight chances for rain on Wednesday with a weak wave.  Staying the nice till our next system on Friday and Saturday.  This will be rain Friday with colder temperatures for the weekend with snow chances.

February:  Very active and cold middle of the month with several shots for snow!



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