Wednesday AM blog: Thunderstorms, severe weather, freezing rain.
What a weather day!
Good Wednesday morning! I hope you are having a great week so far. Mine has been really good so far, just super busy. I had to run to KC yesterday for my migraine doc, then back home and work and actually still working now, lol. However, I will get a little sleep this morning. Then of course this storm system keeps me busy. But to be honest, I am usually keeping myself busy and I like it that way.
I was looking at all the data when I got into work yesterday and there was a 45 degree spread in temperatures across the viewing area. That is crazy! We cover 31 counties, huge spread in temperatures. We are going to see it again today. Through the morning hours we will have drizzle and pockets of showers along and south of I-44. North of I-44, we will have freezing drizzle and pockets of light freezing rain. There could be a few slick spots in our northern counties. Especially a line from Indy-Parsons-Girard-Lamar-Stockton points north, so be careful.
Take a look at the radar below.
Light showers will continue through the middle of the day.
As we continue with these maps, you can see where the front is. Now the purple line is the freezing line. So anything north of that line will be freezing rain. It does surge a little farther north during the afternoon. However, it never really gets north of a line from Neodesha to Nevada line.
I tried to lay out where the severe threat will be developing late today. However, it will be a low threat but still needs to be watched. Then the freezing precip north of the front.
The severe threat along and south of I-44 will last till the front rolls through after midnight. Again, I think it will be a low threat, but still want to watch it. By morning, the front rolls through early morning.
Well of course below you can get my long range forecast based on the Heady Pattern through April. I will put May out later this week. We will have an active severe weather season. April looks interesting. So when is our best chances for snow?
Feb 19th! Why? Well, remember every other cycle mirror each other the best. Every cycle are the very close, but every other is even closer. November 11th, was our 3-5″ snow. This storms will be back on the 19th.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: We need to watch a wave on Sunday and Monday with showers. Snow looks to stay north but it will be close. Another system works in on Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances and possibly some snow. It stays cool the rest of the week with rain on Thursday and Friday. Rain back in late on Saturday.
February 10th-16th: Another cool week with rain and snow chances on Sunday. The next system rolls in late Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. This will also give us rain over to snow chances and probably our best chances for the rest of the season. Stay cool the rest of the week with snow showers on Friday and Saturday.
February 17th-24th: Another cold week with a moderate system on Tuesday with rain and snow chances. A weak system on Thursday with a few snow showers.
February 25th-March 2nd: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. A few showers on Monday with a big storm system brewing for the weekend.
March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.
March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.
March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week.
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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