Wednesday AM Blog: Some snow! Very cold! When will we get a bigger snow?
Some snow! Very cold!
Good early Wednesday morning! Well, it is cold and a good chunk of us have picked up a dusting to an inch of snow. The problem when you get a little snow when it is so cold, it just packs down on the road or blows around. This will stick around through the early morning but then pushing right on out of here.
Morning temperatures are crazy cold and even colder in spots that have picked up some snow.
We won’t warm a ton today.
We will rebound right away as we go into the 40s Thursday, 50s on Friday and Saturday. Most likely, lower 60s for Super Bowl Sunday. We are going to have a few weak waves that will give us chances for showers on Thursday night and on Saturday. There could be a random shower Sunday, but looks ok right now.
So what are our snow chances for the rest of the winter. Lets break them down.
Feb 5th-7th: Rain but some snow, mainly in our northern counties. Most of us rain.
Feb 11th: Stronger system, rain over to snow but some accumulation is likely especially north of I-44.
Feb 15th-16th: moderate system with snow chances and accumulations very possible.
Feb 19th: Another moderate system with accumulations, but mainly north of I-44.
March 2nd and 3rd: Strong system with showers and thundestorms but a little snow on the back side in our northern counties.
March 10th: Strong system, but again accumulations of snow in our northern counties.
I think the Joplin metro has the potential for 3-8″ of additional snow this season. However, areas north, lets say Nevada, probably 8-15″ of additional snow. If one good one can come together, oh my. I will keep you updated.
Make sure you check below for my long range forecast. #headypattern
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: A few showers on Sunday and Monday with mild tempeatures. Rain chancs back in on Tuesday and possibly a little snow on Wednesday. Cold the rest of the week. Rain chances return late on Saturday.
February 10th-16th: Mainly a cold week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday. Rain and snow chances right back in by Friday.
February 17th-24th: Another mainly cool to cold week. Rain and snow chances again on Monday and Tuesday. Staying cool and dry the rest of the week.
February 25th-March 2nd: A cool start ot the week with slight chances for rain on Monday. Turing back to mild with a very strong system working in by the weekend. This will give us thunderstorms and possibly over to snow on the backside.
March 3rd-9th: A cool first have of the week with rain on Monday and Tuesday. Mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with thunderstorms by Saturday.
March 10th-16th: A mild start to the week with rain or snow on Sunday and Monday. Turning much colder with rain or snow chances (slight) on Wednesday. Staying cool the rest of the week.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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