Wednesday AM Blog: Morning showers and cooler. Next storm system and your long range forecast
Good Wednesday morning! I hope all of you are having a great week so far. Mine has been pretty good. I did have Monday off as my son (Christian aka C) has surgery and the first time he was put fully out. He had an extra tooth, so they knocked him out and cut that sucker out. I was proud of him, he didn’t seem very nervous. Now he may have been and was acting tough around dad, but he did great! Plus, he has gotten a ton of ice cream the past couple of days.
I brought back our severe weather threat for the long range forecast below. Severe threat will be ranked from 1-10. 1-3 is a low chances, 4-6 a moderate shot, 7-10, high risk!
I am loving the warmer temperatures. We did get a few showers and still a few leftover morning ones.
Take a look at the radar below.
We will be cooler behind this system with highs into the mid 50s today. However, as we work through the day, more sunshine which is great.
So lets look at the Heady Pattern. Remember, it doesn’t matter if it is a strong system, small system or nothing is rolling through. It all fits the Heady Pattern. We have completed 4 full cycles of this Heady Pattern and currently on the 5th cycle. So let’s look at this weak system. Here is the upper level pattern, you can see the waves rolling through very easily.
The ” L ” across KS, shows this weak wave dropping through. Now, we have had this same system each and every cycle. So lets drop back one cycle to January 29th .
Back in January, we had a ton of arctic air and a piece of the polar vortex rotated down with this system giving us some of the coldest air during the entire winter. Thankfully, this time around we are just cooling down 10-15 degrees. Two cycles ago, it was a much weaker version like we are seeing now. This is back on December 9th .
We will see the nice 60s return for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. However, we have to watch our next system over the weekend. This will give us scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, night and on Sunday.
I think our severe threat is very low on Saturday. However, on Sunday, when the main upper level wave rolls in the severe threat will rise just a bit. I still think overall it is low, but I will watch it.
Our severe threat will increase by late next week. Plus tonight, I am going to do my spring forecast. I will post a big blog late tonight with all the details. Most likely I will do a video blog, so I can talk through the spring. I have your long range HP forecast all the way through June below. Start planning the fishing, camping and lake trips.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th . The pattern is completely set by about September 20th . The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
SEVERE WEATHER INDEX: Scale of 1-10 on the likely hood of severe weather.
Next Week: Showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with a low severe threat (2). The first half of the week looks calm with chilly temperatures. Warming up late in the week with thunderstorms back in on Thursday and Friday. Let’s go a 2 on Thursday and a 3 on Friday.
March 31st-April 6th : A cool Sunday with mild temperatures returning for most of the week. Chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday (2) and Wednesday (4). Some of these could be strong to severe. Calm with great temperatures heading into the weekend.
April 7th-13th : Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday. We have a decent severe threat with this system. A series of waves roll through most of the week giving us chances for thunderstorms pretty much each day. Mild temperatures through the week with warm temperatures for the weekend. Severe threat Sunday (7), Monday (2), Tuesday (2), Wednesday (4), Thursday (2), Saturday (2).
April 14th-20th : A warm start ot the week with thunderstorms Sunday, some could be strong to severe. Cooling down for the beginning of the week with mild temperatures returning by mid week. Our next system gives us thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Cooler for the weekend. Sunday (5), Thursday (3).
April 21st-27th : A mild start to the week with warm temperatures and thunderstorms by Thuesday and Wednesday. Showers for Thursday with cooler temperatures. Mild temps return for the weekend with our next system. Tuesday (4), Wednesday (2), Saturday (2).
April 28th-May 4th : A warm start to the week with showers and then thunderstorms on Monday. Mild through the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday that could be severe. Cooler and dry for the weekend. Monday (4), Thursday (7), Friday (6).
May 5th-11th : Mainly a mild week with scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday (2), Thursday (2).
May 12th-18th : A warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Then another system works in for Friday and Saturday. Monday (2), Tuesday (2), Friday (3), Saturday (4).
May 19th-25th : A mild first half of the week with warm temperatures for the second half of the week. Most of the week will be dry, except for a wave on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday (2), Thursday (4).
May 26th – June 1st : Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, then showers on Tuesday. Another strong system rolls in on Thursday and Friday. Sunday (2), Monday (7), Thursday (2), Friday (6).
June 2nd-8th : A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Mild temperatures the middle of the week with warm temperatures back in late in the week. Also, chances for thunderstorms on Friday. Sunday (4), Monday (4), Friday (2).
Junday 9th-15th : A hot start to the week with cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with a storm system working through. This will give us some thunderstorms on Tuesday. Warming back up late in the week. Tuesday (2).
June 16th-22nd : Warm to hot temperatures through the week. We will see a storm system with thunderstorms on Monday and then again for Friday and Saturday. Monday (3), Friday (3), Saturday (2).
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
Twitter: @ DougHeady
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