Wednesday afternoon blog: Warming up but it gets active down the road

Warming up but it gets active down the road
Wednesday afternoon blog:  Warming up but it gets active down the road

Good Wednesday afternoon! I hope your week is going great so far. Mine has been pretty good. However, fall would be great to see return. We had a really great month in October, well except the last week when we dropped off the cliff. We have had some random really nice days, but in general it has been well below where we should be for this time of the year. Remember, our average high is 60, we have been in a whole different league for several days now. So in this blog, lets take a look at our next storm systems and I am going to break down what we will see into the middle of January.

We have another cold front that will shift through later tonight. This isn’t a very strong front and it will be mainly dry. We may see a random flurry but that is about it. You can see most of the moisture is staying well north of us.

Take a look at the radar below.

However, the cold temperatures will stick around the through the evening and tonight.

Wednesday afternoon blog:  Warming up but it gets active down the road

50s will return for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. We will get a fast moving weak wave on Sunday and Monday with a few showers.

Wednesday afternoon blog:  Warming up but it gets active down the road

We will actually see pretty nice temperatures most of next week. Our next system rolls in Thursday and Friday of next week. This will be a much stronger system with probably thunderstorms.

Wednesday afternoon blog:  Warming up but it gets active down the road

I will do the winter forecast on Tuesday the 25th. I usually like to wait until late November so I can see the entire new Heady Pattern that set up the third week of September. So we have already gone through a complete cycle. In fact, b/c the cycle starts well before the pattern, we have almost gone through two cycles. But you have to remember the first cycle is still a mix of the old pattern. So we have now gone through one full true cycle of the new pattern.

So lets do a little preview. This years pattern is still influenced by a weak El Nino/Neutral phase. The past two years have been fast quick cycles in the Heady Pattern. We are on a much longer cycle this year, which I am fine with, but I do prefer the shorter ones. This pattern is decently active and we will have some crazy stretches with storm system after storms system. We are currently in the calmer part of the pattern. The pattern will really pick up the week of Thanksgiving. We will go through a stretch from November 21st-December 12th with 6 storm systems. I think 4 of them will give us winter weather chances. We will continue with 3 more decent sizes systems for the rest of December. The beginnning of January stays active, then the middle of the month we will calm down a bit, but it picks right back up for February. So lets break it down week by week below.

#headypattern

-Doug

Long range forecast through late November:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A weak wave on Sunday and Monday with a few showers. Temperatures stay decently nice through the week ahead of a stronger system on Thursday and Friday. Most likely, this will give us showers and thunderstorms with colder temperatures for the weekend.

November 24th – 30th: The next system moves right back in on Monday and Tuesday. This will be a rain event that could end with snow on Tuesday. We warm up for Thanksgiving with our next system rolling in mainly on Black Friday. This as of now mainly looks like a rain event. I think temperatures will stay decent into the holiday weekend.

December 1st – 7th: Mild with rain chances back in on Sunday and Monday. Turning colder with rain or snow on Tuesday. Staying cooler through the middle of the week with rain back in on Thursday and Friday. As we get colder air in on Friday, we could go to snow once again. Cold temperatures settle in for the weekend.

December 8th – 14th: Temperatures moderate for the beginning of the week. Rain and snow chances back in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Turning much colder again for the rest of the week.

December 15th – 21st: A cold start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday. We will warm up a bit for the middle of the week. Rain and snow chances right back in on Thursday and Friday with cold temperatures back in for the weekend.

December 22nd – 28th: Mainly a cold week for Christmas. Rain and snow chances on Christmas eve and Christmas day. Staying cool and dry the rest of the week.

December 29th – January4th: Another cool to cold week. Snow chances Sunday and Monday. A week system with some snow showers possible on New Years Day. Cold and dry the rest of the week.

January 5th – 11th: Again, mainly a cold week with rain, ice and snow chances on Monday and Tuesday. Staying cold with our next system in on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.

January 12th-18th: A cold start to the week, but temperatures will warm by mid-week. A few showers in on Friday and Saturday.

January 19th-25th: A mild start to the week with a bigger system in on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will mainly give us rain, but could go over to snow on the backside of the system. Turing much colder the rest of the week with a moderation in temperatures for the weekend. Rain chances back in on Saturday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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