Forecast

Wednesday night/Thursday AM Blog: The pattern picks up!

The pattern picks up!

Good Wednesday night!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been super busy, but a pretty good week.  Can you believe it is almost the holiday season?  Didn't the holiday season just end?  I am not sure what has happened to 2019.  I am glad that we are in a new pattern now, but I can't believe what it has already produced.  So far, we have already had pretty cold air and even a 1/4" of snow.  That was only our 4th snow Joplin has had in 100 years.  Meaning that some accumulated on the ground.  We are now about 7 weeks into the new Heady Pattern.  Looking at this first cycle, we will have some interesting weather this winter and next spring.  I will do my winter forecast here in about two weeks.  Also, remember my long range forecast is below all the way through Christmas.  In the next couple of weeks I will extend that for you guys into the spring months.  So what do I see so far?

We are going to have some really cold arctic outbreaks this winter.  We are going to have a crazy amount of cold fronts rolling through.  We should get much more snow this winter.  However, I do think the ice events will be around as well.  

Take a look at the radar below.

Showers stick around through the night with most of it staying along and south of I-44.

A few left over random showers and maybe a few flakes of snow to start the day.

Sunshine will return by afternoon, but a cold high of 42 and windy will make it feel colder than it already is.  So what is next? Back into the lower 60s on Saturday and probably Sunday as well.  In fact, the weekend is going to be fantastic.  Next storm system drops in late Sunday and Monday.  Take a look.

This is one feature of the new Heady Pattern that will repeat very often.  A wave digs deep into the rockies and shoots out.  However, because of the some what spit Jet flow, an addition upper level wave in the northern plains.  This will always allow a cold front to sink in with rain and sharply colder temperatures.  Then as the wave out west ejects out, then we get wintry weather.  This is actually a great ice set up for later in the winter.  This time around if the moisture is present, we will get showers late Sunday and Sunday night.  However, as the colder air works in, we could go over to freezing rain, sleet and snow by Monday morning.  

Lets keep watching this the next few days.  Long range forecast below.

#headypattern

-Doug

Long range forecast through late November:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  Turing sharply colder Sunday night and Monday.  Rain possibly over to freezing rain, sleet and snow by Monday.  Very cold through the middle of the week, but be we do warm the second half of the week.  Also, mainly dry.    

November 17th-23rd:  Multiple waves this week as we enter a two week stretch of a lot of weather.  A mild start with rain chances increasing on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing colder by Wednesday with a wintry mix possible Wednesday and Thursday.  

November 24th-30th:  A mild first half of the week.  However, turning colder for Thanksgiving and the holiday weekend.  Rain chances in on Wednesday, Thanksgiving and Black Friday.  However, we could go over to snow by Friday, something to watch.

December 1st-7th:  Mild start but a storm system in on Sunday and Monday.  Rain and snow chances and turning colder through the middle of the week.  Rain and snow chances back in on Friday and Saturday.

December 8th-14th:  Mainly a cool week with rain chances on Wednesday.

December 15th-21st:  Mild start, but then back to chilly/cold temperatures most of the week.  Rain and snow chances Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Another system in with rain or snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

December 22nd-28th:  Mainly a cold week once again.  Rain and snow chances on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and the 26th.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug


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