Forecast

Wednesday Morning Blog: Active stretch of weather

Active stretch of weather

Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  I have been busy as always but good.  I need to take a little road trip this morning to look for a truck.  I have a mustange but for rainy days and the boat I need an old beat up truck.  My last one I just sold so on the search.  The weather hasn't been bad.  We did get a lot of scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday, but we won't see near as many today.  We can't rule out and isolated pop-up storm today, tonight and tomorrow morning, but most will stay south of us.  

Take a look at the radar below.

You can see most of the storms stay south of the region today.

We do have second wave rotating south of us tonight and Thursday morning.  However, again, most of the rain to our south.  Our southern counties could see a few showers but that is about it.

We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We have a decently active stretch over the next two weeks.  Our first wave rolls through on Saturday.

Now, we won't have a lot of moisture, but a cold front will pass through on Saturday afternoon.  As it does, we could see some pop-up storms that could be strong to severe.  But again, I don't expect many to pop up, so lets just watch it.  The pattern does pick up.  We have a wave rolling out late Monday and Tuesday of next week.  This will give us sever weather chances, especially on Tuesday.  Then another wave on Thursday and Friday.  I will keep you updated.  Take a look at my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

-Doug

Long range forecast through Middle June:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Numbers each week is my severe weather index.  The closer to 0 the better.  The higher the number the severe weather chances are much greater!

Next Week:  A cooler Sunday but warming right back up.  We will have a wave on Monday and Tuesday with thundestorms that could be strong to severe.  Monday (2), Tuesday (3).  We stay warm with another wave on Wednesday and Thursday.  Wednesday (2), Thursday (3).  Nice into the weekend.

May 5th-11th:  Mainly a mild week with thunderstorms on Sunday with a wave working through.  Then we have a mid-week system with more thunderstorms with a severe weather risk.  A little cooler toward the weeked but it looks nice.  Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all 2's

May 12th-18th:  A warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Then another system works in for the weekend.   Sunday, Monday and Tuesday (2), (4) on Saturday.

May 19th-25th:  Showers to start the week on Sunday and Monday with mild temperatures.  Warming up the second half of the week with Thunderstorms around Thursday.  Thursday (4).

May 26th- June 1st:  Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and then showers on Tuesday.  Another strong system rolls in on Thursday and Friday.  Sunday (4), Monday (7), Thursday (2), Friday (6).

June 2nd-8th:  A warm week with storms on Sunday and Monday.  A fast moving system back in on Friday.  Sunday (4), Monday (4), Friday (2).

June 9th-15th:  A hot start to the week with cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with a storm system working through.  This will give us some thunderstorms on Tuesday.  Warming back up late in the week.  Tuesday (2).

June 16th-22nd:  A warm to hot week with storms on Sunday and Monday, then again by the weekend.  Monday (3), Friday (3), Saturday (2).  

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle.  That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

 


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