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Thursday AM Video Blog: Very Active Pattern

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Good Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great as we approach the weekend.  Don't forget Chiefs fans, RED FRIDAY!  Ok, I know there are a lot of people out there that aren't Chief fans, but I am diehard and I have waited 25 years since the last Championship game.  Whether win or lose.  Ok check out the radar below as we continue to watch this wave pass through.

I did a video blog today.  Video blogs are a little easier during active stretches.   

 

My long range forecast is below.

#HeadyPattern

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle.  That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  A cold start to the week with a fast moving wave on Tuesday.  This will give us a few rain and snow showers and then pass right on by.  We will cool down again behind it, then moderate a bit late in the week.  A weak wave with rain and snow showers back in on Thursday and Friday.

January 27th-February 2nd:  A cool first half of the week with chances for rain and snow on Sunday and Monday.  Mainly dry through the middle of the week with warmer temperatures.  Rain and snow back in for the weekend, but mainly south of the area.

February 3rd-9th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week.  Rain chances by the Friday and Saturday.

February 10th-16th:  A cool start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday.  Mild midweek with a strong system for Thursday and Friday with rain to snow.  Much colder heading into the weekend.

February 17th-24th:  A cold week with rain and snow chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then cool and dry.

February 25th-March 2nd:  Mainly a cool week with slight chances for rain on Tuesday.  However, a stronger system will roll in over the weekend.

March 3rd-9th:  A cool first have of the week with rain on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with thunderstorms by Saturday.

March 10th-16th:  A mild start to the week with rain or snow on Sunday and Monday.  Turning much colder with rain or snow chances (slight) on Wednesday.  Staying cool the rest of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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