Forecast

Tuesday Night/ Wednesday AM Blog: Severe threat increases.

Severe threat increases.

Good Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  Plus, the weather has been fantastic.  I love the warm springtime temps, the winds are a little much, but I will take it.  However, we also have thunderstorms that will increase, some could be strong to severe on Wednesday night.  

Take a look at the radar below.

Mild start to the day with lows only into the lower 60s.  We should warm again near 80.

Thunderstorms will really develop by mid evening.  Mainly after 6 or 7pm  They will get going along the cold front from KC-Wichita-NW OK.  

I do think these will go severe.  The main threat will be gusty winds with some large hail.  However, the tornado threat is low.  It is a little higher south of us across eastern OK, western AR, and parts of Texas.  Now this line will push SE through the evening hours.  I don't even expect it to make it to the metro until probably at least 10pm.  Prior to 10pm, most of these will be in SE KS.  

Threats in SE KS: Elevated threats, hail and wind, low threat for tornado.  

Severe threat will continue as these push SE into NE OK and SW MO.  

After 10pm, these will weaken a bit but still continue the severe threat into NE OK and SW MO.  Low threats by this time.  Thunderstorms will continue until 1-2am.  The severe threat will start really dropping quickly after midnight.

It is going to be pretty active the next couple of weeks.  We are right on track with the Heady Pattern and the 2nd half of April and early May we will have a lot of storm systems.  Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#Headypattern 

Long range forecast through Middle June:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Numbers each week is my severe weather index.  The closer to 0 the better.  The higher the number the severe weather chances are much greater!

Next Week:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorms Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday just showers.  Mild the second half of the week with more thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Monday (3), Friday (1).

April 28th-May 4th:  Mild the first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  More storms on Thursday and Friday.  Sunday (2), Monday (3), Thursday (6), Friday (1).

May 5th-11th:  Mainly a mild week with scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Wednesday (2), Thursday (2). 

May 12th-18th:  A warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Then another system works in for the weekend.   Sunday, Monday and Tuesday (2), (4) on Saturday.

May 19th-25th:  Showers to start the week on Sunday and Monday with mild temperatures.  Warming up the second half of the week with Thunderstorms around Thursday.  Thursday (4).

May 26th- June 1st:  Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and then showers on Tuesday.  Another strong system rolls in on Thursday and Friday.  Sunday (4), Monday (7), Thursday (2), Friday (6).

June 2nd-8th:  A warm week with storms on Sunday and Monday.  A fast moving system back in on Friday.  Sunday (4), Monday (4), Friday (2).

June 9th-15th:  A hot start to the week with cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with a storm system working through.  This will give us some thunderstorms on Tuesday.  Warming back up late in the week.  Tuesday (2).

June 16th-22nd:  A warm to hot week with storms on Sunday and Monday, then again by the weekend.  Monday (3), Friday (3), Saturday (2).  

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle.  That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

 


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