Forecast

Tuesday Morning Blog: Next storm systems and your long range forecast.

Long range forecast

Good Tuesday morning!  I hope your week has started off great and on to Tuesday.  Mine has been fantastic, and ready to get a ton done today.  At least we are going to warm up a decent amout today.  Hight should go well into the 60s for highs with partly sunny skies. 

Take a look at the radar below.

Here is my latest video-cast with my month long forecast.

 

#headypattern

-Doug

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

April 7th-13th:  Warm with thunderstorms back in on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures through the middle of the week with thunderstorm chances with our next wave on Thursday.  Break Friday, then another wave over the weekend.  Severe threat Sunday (3), Monday (6), Thursday (4), Saturday (2).

April 14th-20th:  A warm start ot the week with thunderstorms Sunday, some could be strong to severe.  Cooling down for the beginning of the week with mild temperatures returning by mid week.  Our next system gives us thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.  Cooler for the weekend.  Sunday (5), Thursday (3).

April 21st-27th:  A mild start to the week with warm temperatures and thunderstorms by Thursday and Wednesday.  Showers for Thursday with cooler temperatures.  Mild temps return for the weekend with our next system.  Tuesday (4), Wednesday (2), Saturday (2).

April 28th-May 4th:  A warm start to the week with showers and then thunderstorms on Monday.  Mild through the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday that could be severe.  Cooler and dry for the weekend.  Monday (4), Thursday (7), Friday (6).

May 5th-11th:  Mainly a mild week with scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Wednesday (2), Thursday (2). 

May 12th-18th:  A warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Then another system works in for Friday and Saturday.  Monday (2), Tuesday (2), Friday (3), Saturday (4).

May 19th-25th:  A mild first half of the week with warm temperatures for the second half of the week.  Most of the week will be dry, except for a wave on Wednesday and Thursday.  Wednesday (2), Thursday (4).

May 26th- June 1st:  Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, then showers on Tuesday.  Another strong system rolls in on Thursday and Friday.  Sunday (2), Monday (7), Thursday (2), Friday (6).

June 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures the middle of the week with warm temperatures back in late in the week.  Also, chances for thunderstorms on Friday.  Sunday (4), Monday (4), Friday (2).

June 9th-15th:  A hot start to the week with cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with a storm system working through.  This will give us some thunderstorms on Tuesday.  Warming back up late in the week.  Tuesday (2).

June 16th-22nd:  Warm to hot temperatures through the week.  We will see a storm system with thunderstorms on Monday and then again for Friday and Saturday.  Monday (3), Friday (3), Saturday (2).  

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle.  That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

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