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Tuesday AM Blog: New Heady Pattern is almost here! So what is next?

New Heady Pattern is almost here! So what is next

Good Tuesday morning!  I hope your week has started off great!  Mine has been pretty good.  In fact, I only work two days this week.  On Wednesday, I have a doc appointment with my pain management doctor.  I have to keep my migraines under control.  Then Bryan Busby (My Bizz partner) and I have a big meeting for our side business.  I contract out long range forecasting to companies using my Heady Pattern.  This is something I have been working very hard on and hopefully will do fulltime in the future.  So I am excited for our upcoming meetings.  We have had a good year with this years HP (Heady Pattern).  However, the pattern is about to end.  In fact, it is ending right now and the new HP is setting up. It will be completely set up in 6 weeks.  So we are already in the morphing stage from old to new.  I have developed a model that I have been using now for the 4th year and I have a pretty good handle already on what the new cycle length will be.  This past year has been a 51 days cycle.  This means in a sense with a seasonal change that todays weather is equal to 51 days ago and 51 day from here.  However, the new cycle is already showing itself and is super cool.  Yes I know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am a weather nerd but this is soooo cool to me.  So what is going on with the weather?

Take a look at the radar below.

Well, the old pattern is still dominant even though the new pattern has begun.  However, we are at 80% old and 20% new.  This will continue to swing over the next several weeks.  We continue with a huge High Pressure over the Rockies with waves rolling around it.  So rain chances will increase a bit with the heat and humidity.  Take a look at today.

As a cold front works in this afternoon we will have a few hit and miss storms.  At the same time we will climb into the lower 90s with a heat index around 100 degrees.

Now this front will hang out over us pretty much all week and weekend.  It will swing through, lift north and swing through.  As long as it is around, we will have scattered storms.  Take a look at another batch trying to develop Wednesday morning and then again Wednesday afternoon.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below based on the Heady Pattern.

#headypattern

-Doug

Long range forecast through Middle September:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  A hot start to the week with lower 90s and pop up storms each day.  Cooling a hair back into the 80s for mid week, then back into the 90s the rest of the week.  Chances for pop-up storms each day.

August 18th-24th:  Mainly a warm week with mid to upper 80s.  Chances for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, then again on Wednesday and Thursday.

August 25th-31st:  Mainly a hot week leading into Labor Day weekend.  Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday, then again for the weekend.

September 1st-7th:  Another hot week with scattered storms on Sunday, Friday and Saturday.

September 8th-14th:  Mainly a warm week with scattered storms on Sunday and Monday.

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

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