Forecast

Monday Night Blog: Severe threat moves in!

Severe threat moves in!

Good Monday night.  I wanted to give you a detailed look at our severe weather over the next few days before I shoot home and try to rest up for a busy couple of days.  So lets jump into it!  Showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight.  This will mainly be along and north of I-44.  

Take a look at the radar below.

I am not expecting much in the way of severe weather tonight.  However, by morning, some of these storms could pack a punch with a hail and wind threat.  Again most of these will be along and north of I-44.

These will work through, we will warm into the 70s by the noon hour.  Early afternoon, isolated supercells will start to pop up.  These will be scattered so everyone needs to watch out for them.  Severe weather index for Tuesday (8), (5) on Wednesday.

If we get scattered supercells early afternoon, these will likely go severe quickly.  We will have all modes of severe weather possible with these supercells.  As the afternoon progresses.  A big batch of storms across SE KS and NE OK will start marching east into the evening hours.  

We will switch to mainly a high wind and large hail threat.  The tornado threat will still exist but it will drop a bit for the evening.  This batch will roll through and periods of storms through the night.  Our severe threat will continue.  We will see a break before the next batch on Wednesday afternoon.  Again Wendesday, the severe threat continues.

The other big threat will be heavy rains with some flash flooding.  Here is the potential rainfall.  This is not exact but an idea.

I think most areas will be in the 2-5" range over the next few days.

We will get a day or two break but severe weather righ back in after this system.  Check out my long range forecast below based off the Heady Pattern.  Plus our severe weather chances for each week.

Long range forecast through Middle June:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Numbers each week is my severe weather index.  The closer to 0 the better.  The higher the number the severe weather chances are much greater!  

Next Week:  Showers and thunderstorms back in on Sunday and Monday.  As a front hangs out near the area, showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday as well.  Mild temperatures through the week with thunderstorms back in on Friday and Saturday.  Severe Index:  3 Sunday, 4 Monday, 1's Tuesday and Wednesday.  2's Friday and Saturday.

May 12th-18th:  Warming up with scattered thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm most of the week with scattere storms with our next system on Thursday and Friday.  Index:  1's Monday and Thursday, 2's Tuesday and Friday.

May 19th-25th:  Warm with a strong system in on Sunday and Monday.  Another wave Thusday and then again by the weekend.  Staying mainly warm through the week.  Index:  Sunday (3), Monday (6), Thursday (2), Saturday (3).

May 26th- June 1st:  Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and then showers on Tuesday.  Another strong system rolls in on Thursday and Friday.  Sunday (2), Monday (1), Tuesday (3), Thursday (4), Friday (2).

June 2nd-8th:  A warm week with storms on Sunday and Monday.  A fast moving system back in on Friday.  Sunday (4), Monday (4), Friday (2).

June 9th-15th:  A hot start to the week with cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with a storm system working through.  This will give us some thunderstorms on Tuesday.  Warming back up late in the week.  Tuesday (2).

June 16th-22nd:  A warm to hot week with storms on Sunday and Monday, then again by the weekend.  Monday (3), Friday (3), Saturday (2).  

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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