Warm Thursday with more t-storms to track – Nick
Good Wednesday evening, everyone. After our big batch of rain and t-storms late last night and early this morning, we had no problem warming back up under partly sunny skies. Once the rain and t-storms dropped our lows back into the lower to middle 60s, everyone saw highs back in the middle to upper 80s this afternoon. This evening started out with a few isolated t-storms mainly along the MO/AR border closer to Table Rock Lake. However, the front parked on top of the region will allow for another complex of t-storms to head toward us from Colorado, Kansas and New Mexico.
The few isolated t-storms along and south of US 60 will die out before we hit midnight. While the overnight starts out dry, clouds will increase from the west as the complex of t-storms starts working on in. It won’t be until after 4 or 5 AM Thursday until the t-storms really get into our western counties.
As the storms work in for the AM drive, they’ll be on the strong side. If there’s a chance for a part of the line or any of the t-storms to turn severe, it would be for wind gusts around 60 mph and maybe some quarter-size hail. Otherwise, the rain will force temperatures back down into the middle 60s to start your Thursday morning out.
After the rain and t-storms clear out, the afternoon will start out with mostly cloudy skies trying to hold on. As the afternoon rolls along, though, we’ll see skies turn partly sunny to allow temperatures to warm back up once again. This time, highs should be a notch or two cooler. Still, it will be a warm day with highs in the middle 80s.
For Thursday night and Friday morning, we’ll actually have quiet weather for a change of pace. Under partly cloudy skies and a stronger south breeze at 10-20 mph, it will be a very mild start to our Friday with lows in the lower 70s. Ahead of another approaching cold front, it will be another warm day with most spots pushing into the lower to middle 80s. However, some moisture will pool along the front late in the afternoon. If enough moisture can pool together, we’ll have some scattered t-storms that could be strong to severe.
While we’ll see more scattered t-storms late Friday night and into Saturday morning, they should stay on the strong side. For the rest of Saturday, there’s a decent chance that the front will lift back to the north and keep us warm and unstable for Saturday afternoon. If that setup holds, we’ll watch for strong to severe t-storms for Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.
Behind that system, we’ll be quite cooler for Sunday. Under mostly sunny skies, we’ll have lows start out in the middle 40s before we see highs back in the middle 60s for Sunday afternoon. By Monday and early next week, we’ll have another system head our way with additional rain and t-storms. While Monday’s t-storms look to behave, we could have another potential severe threat by Tuesday.
For Wednesday, we’ll have a few isolated t-storms before a stronger system heads our way by next weekend. Highs will stay mild with lower 70s for the area Wednesday afternoon. Doug has your updated long-range forecast out through the middle of June down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!
May 26nd-28th: With the exception of a warm Friday, mild for this stretch. Dry weather for Thursday. We’ll have slight t-storm chances with a severe threat Friday before better t-storm chances return Saturday with another severe threat.
May 29th-June 4th: Warm temperatures all week long. Slight rain and t-storm chances for both Monday and Tuesday. We’ll watch for better t-storm chances with a severe threat Wednesday and Thursday. Slight t-storm chances with a severe threat for Friday before more scattered t-storms with another severe threat for our Saturday.
June 5th-11th: Warm temperatures all week long. Slight t-storm chances on Monday. Watching a severe threat with t-storms on Wednesday. T-storms on Thursday followed by a dry Friday and another severe threat with Saturday’s t-storms.
June 12th-18th: Warm Sunday followed by a hot period Monday through Wednesday. Warm for the remainder of the week. T-storm chances with a severe threat Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. A higher severe threat with t-storms on Thursday before we dry out for the weekend.
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