Good early Sunday morning, everyone. Even though we usually don’t go through the fall season without some wild temperature swings, it was still incredible to go from record highs in the middle 80s to our cool start to the weekend. Even though we were warmer than our lower to middle 40s from Friday afternoon, we didn’t see a huge warm up under mostly cloudy skies yesterday. After we started in the upper 30s, highs only could climb back into the middle to upper 40s.
Looking at our weather setup to wrap up the weekend, we note two features on the surface map. Even though a cold front will slide to our south and southwest over the next few days, it and an area of high pressure are ready to bring in another taste of winter as colder air starts to return.
Upstairs at the jet stream level is where the true system with better rain chances will come from. While the upper low just off the coast of California is a notable feature in the upper-level setup, it’s the wave coming out of Montana. That’s the wave that will start to ramp up the moisture and lift across the area resulting in our returning rain chances and our first taste of wintry weather this season.
Before any potential moisture gets here, we’ll stay dry under mostly cloudy skies for the overnight hours and into Sunday morning. We’ll have overnight lows hold mainly steady in the lower to middle 40s with a light northeast wind at 5-10 mph.
Even with mostly cloudy skies sticking with us through the day and some rain chances trying to sneak in by late afternoon, some breaks in the cloud cover should allow us to trend warmer than where we were yesterday. Areas along and north of US 54 should top out in the upper 40s while the rest of the area should make it back into the lower 50s for afternoon highs today.
By Sunday night, the upper wave will start to push into the region and increase our rain chances. It will start as rain chances as we sit in the 40s for Sunday night and early Monday morning. At the stroke of midnight Monday morning, our temperatures in the lower to middle 40s will be the warmest that we’ll see temperatures at for the day.
As temperatures fall and hold in a range between 32° and 38° for Monday afternoon, that will bring in a variety of precipitation across the region. Areas from Stockton Lake to Lamar to Parsons to Independence to Tulsa eastward will have a better shot of seeing mainly rain during the day. Hop to the northwest, that’s where we’re expecting some sleet and snow to mix in.
This first round of wintry precipitation will continue into the evening before we ease back into chances of drizzle, freezing drizzle and flurries to begin the overnight and early Tuesday morning. However, another quick wave will bring another batch of moisture our way by the time Tuesday morning’s drive back to work and school get underway. No matter what falls from the sky Tuesday morning, we’ll start cold with temperatures between the upper 20s and lower 30s.
While Tuesday may start out with a wintry mix, we’re anticipating warmer air at the surface and up aloft to start working back in. That should switch the precipitation over to mainly rain as highs look to climb back into the upper 30s and lower 40s for Tuesday afternoon.
Before this system can leave us by the middle of the week, it’ll throw in another wave of moisture our way and keep rain chances in the forecast for Wednesday and early Thursday morning. We aren’t expecting anything wintry for Wednesday as highs will climb back into the 50s.
Now, the question is how much of what are we expecting with this system through Wednesday night and Thursday morning? Let’s start with expected snow totals. The better shot for any accumulating snow will be for areas northwest of a line stretching from Independence to Parsons to Nevada. Given how temperatures have been recently and how we’ll look before any moisture begins, the ground temperatures still seem warm enough to limit how much snow we could see. Still, areas in the lighter shading of blue could see some snow totals up to an inch with a chance for areas from Yates Center northwest to see a few inches with this system.
As far as ice totals go, we’re keeping those numbers fairly low with any accumulating ice less than a quarter of an inch for areas northwest of Nevada, Girard, Parsons and Independence. If you’re thinking about any travel out west, they could see some higher ice totals with more heavier moisture and more colder air near the surface to work with.
The big takeaway I’m seeing in terms of any accumulating precipitation, though, is the amount of rain on the way. With this system giving us 4 to 5 days of rain chances, this gives us the chance to catch up on rain and put a dent in our drought. Between late Sunday afternoon and early Thursday morning, we have the chance to pick up on 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Depending on where any heavier rainfall can set up, we could have some locally higher amounts possible before we dry out by Thursday afternoon.
After we get past this system and a cool Thursday afternoon, we’ll stay partly sunny, dry and chilly for Friday with lows bouncing back into the lower 50s. Thankfully, Halloween is looking dry and mostly sunny. While we’re expecting a chilly afternoon with highs in the upper 50s, it may not be a bad idea to dress appropriately for a cool Halloween night if you have any outdoor plans lining up. Doug has your long range forecast covering the month of November and the first few weeks of December down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!
November 1st-7th: A cooler start with rain chances on Sunday and Monday. Mild temperatures the rest of the week with rain chances back in on Friday and Saturday.
November 8th-14th: A cool start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday. Staying cool into the middle of the week with mild temperatures returning. Rain chances on Friday with rain or snow chances by Saturday.
November 15th-21st: Mainly a cold to chilly week and mainly dry. Slight rain chances on Thursday.
November 22nd-28th: Back to mild for Thanksgiving week. However, rain chances Wednesday through Saturday
November 29th-December 5th: Up and down temperatures all week with two storms systems. Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Then again, rain chances back in for the weekend.
December 6th-12th: A cool start to the week, but warming up the middle of the week with rain chances. Much colder temperatures late in the week and into the weekend with most likely wintry weather chances