Latest updated blog – Turning brighter and milder for the next few days – Nick
Good late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, everyone. After a cloudy, chilly and wet start to our weekend, we’re still taking baby steps to improve our weather setup before we kick off the new work/school week ahead of us. While we had to start our Saturday out with some light rain and drizzle in spots, any peaks of the sun we had work through our mostly cloudy skies helped temperatures nudge upward for the afternoon. After we started out in the middle 40s, we topped out in the lower to middle 50s for another chilly afternoon.
While we have high pressure over southeast Colorado keeping our breeze light out of the west and northwest for our Sunday, look up to the north. Across the Canadian border, we have our next cold front that is more than ready to start heading our way and change things up by the time we roll into Monday night and Tuesday.
Until we see the upper-level low over Hudson Bay spawn another upper-level low to send the front our way, we’ll see our current system over Michigan continue to shit into parts of the Northeast as we work into Sunday. While it will lead to some more sunshine for Sunday, the jet to our south means we’ll still have temperatures below normal to wrap up our weekend.
As long as we’re still dealing with some moisture on the backside of our stubborn upper-level low, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance for a few showers during the overnight and to get our Sunday morning started. With the mostly cloudy skies in place and a light west/northwest breeze at 5-10 mph, we’ll start in the lower 40s across the area for our Sunday morning.
If any slight rain chances try to hold on during the morning hours, they’ll start moving off to our east as we get the afternoon started. Even with a westerly/northwesterly breeze sticking around, returning sunshine will get temperatures into the middle 50s by the noon hour.
Under partly sunny skies, we’ll continue to make an improvement on our temperatures as we work through our Sunday afternoon. Areas in southwest Missouri will see highs top out in the upper 50s while our corners of Kansas and Oklahoma top out between the upper 50s and lower 60s.
With mostly clear skies in the forecast for Sunday night and Monday morning, we’ll be looking at temperatures turning a bit cold as we start heading back to work and school. Even with a southwest breeze at 5-10 mph, we’ll have lows dropping back between the upper 30s and 40° for our Monday morning.
Before the cold front up north starts working in Monday evening, we’ll have mostly sunny skies and a southwest wind send our temperatures soaring back into mild territory for our Monday afternoon. Under mostly sunny skies, we’ll have highs back in the upper 60s to near 70° across the region.
While there’s a slim chance for a few showers and t-storms just ahead of the front as we get Monday evening started. The main weather story for Monday evening will be a northerly wind kicking back in and bringing in much colder air for Tuesday. As an upper-level wave passes by, it will have plenty of moisture behind the front to bring rain and snow chances in for our Tuesday. As for temperatures, we’ll have lows dropping into the lower to middle 30s and highs only topping out in the lower 40s for the afternoon.
Let’s talk about our snow chances with this system. Current indications show some accumulating snow possible as we deal with our colder temperatures through Tuesday morning and before the moisture starts clearing out Tuesday evening. A few things working against any accumulating snow will be warm ground temperatures before the snow chances can sneak in and the snow chances working in when temperatures will mainly be just above freezing. However, good forcing with this wave could drive some impressive snow rates down to temporarily overcome ground temperatures and air temperatures just above freezing. If the snow can come down, we could see some minor accumulations mainly on grassy surfaces with Tuesday’s snow chances. If we were to see anything accumulate, early indications show an inch or less for areas south of US 400 and south of US 160 on the MO side. Our northern counties could see grassy amounts over an inch and possibly top out near 1.5″. We’ll continue to watch this setup and make any necessary changes as we continue to see how the fine details mesh out over the next few days.
Once we get past Tuesday’s wave, we’ll have partly sunny skies return for our Wednesday before any moisture and upper-level energy out west try to bring a few showers in for late Wednesday afternoon and early Wednesday evening. As for temperatures, we’ll deal with either a light freeze or plenty of frost for Wednesday morning as lows drop down to 30°. We are expecting highs to bounce back into the middle 50s for Wednesday afternoon.
With additional upper-level waves, moisture and energy wanting to ride in from the west, scattered rain chances want to stick with us through the rest of the week. Fortunately, we do see temperatures trending upward once we get into the upcoming weekend. After we see highs in the middle 50s on Thursday, we’ll see highs work back into the upper 50s and near 60° by next Friday and Saturday.
If you’re curious as to how we look to wrap up the month and for a good portion of May, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. It’s worth checking out since we’ll start seeing severe weather chances work in for the final week of April. Have a good night and a great Sunday!
April 25th-May 1st: Warm start with showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. These could be strong to severe. Mild temperatures with showers on Wednesday. Thunderstorms again on Thursday that will be strong to severe. Fairly nice heading into the weekend.
May 2nd-8th: Warm with strong to severe storms on Sunday. Warm and nice through the week and mainly dry until thunderstorms on Friday that will be strong to severe.
May 9th-May 15th: Mild thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Warming up by the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday. Nice the rest of the week with thunderstorms back in for the weekend that could be severe.
May 16th-May 22nd: Mainly a mild week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Then again on Thursday and Friday. We will have chances for severe weather each of those days.