JOPLIN, Mo. - Our next upper level low will work into and intensify over the Southwestern U.S. on Tuesday. On top of that, our next surface front will really start to take shape out west. As the front strengthens, the gradient winds (winds associated with the front and developing low) will pick up throughout the day and into the early evening. Combine that with expected low humidity values, a fire risk will be present for Tuesday.
At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has an elevated risk outlined for eastern New Mexico, western Texas, extreme southeastern Colorado and the TX and OK Panhandles. Both the wind speeds and relative humidity values are close to leading to a critical risk in some spots, but the Storm Prediction Center has held off on issuing any until Tuesday morning. Once relative humidity values recover Tuesday evening, the fire risk will start to drop off.