Watching strong to severe t-storm chances for Sunday – Nick

Other systems to watch for the coming week

Good early Sunday morning, everyone. After a mild start in the middle 60s Saturday morning, it was a very warm and humid afternoon with everyone topping out in the middle to upper 80s (even a few spots near 90°). While it was warm and humid, that didn’t result in any t-storms in our area the other day. However, that will change today with our next cold front coming in from the north.


The approaching cold front, along with an upper-level wave to provide support, will bring a chance for severe weather to the area that we’ll be watching very closely. You can see the low to elevated threat for severe weather down below. As early as 10 AM until possibly as late as 7 PM, we’ll watch for severe t-storms capable of large hail, high wind and heavy rainfall. Fortunately, we aren’t too worried about the tornado threat. It may be low, but it is something we’ll still keep an eye on.


Before sunrise, we can’t rule out an isolated t-storm or two for a few spots in southeast Kansas or northeast Oklahoma. Those could push low-end severe levels with hail around quarter-size and wind gusts between 50 and 60. Most areas will stay dry very early this morning and toward sunrise with lows in the middle to upper 60s.


By 10 AM, we’re expecting a complex of t-storms ahead of the cold front to start pushing in to our northern counties. They will most likely be very strong or severe with wind and hail being the main threats.


As we head toward late morning and into the early afternoon, the storms will approach the I-44 corridor with a potential for wind and hail. As the storms work through, we will see temperatures try to cool down a bit after we see temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s by the noon hour.


All indications point to the complex of t-storms to work through much of the area late this morning and into the early afternoon. This would overwork the atmosphere and leave much of the area in better shape as we head into the rest of the afternoon after that complex of t-storms clear out after 2 or 3 PM. However, we’ll still watch the passing cold front closely through the rest of the afternoon. It will try to produce additional scattered showers and t-storms during the afternoon. If the front can find any part of our area where the atmosphere isn’t worked over, we’ll watch for the potential for a few more strong to severe t-storms until we get to 7 PM.


Fortunately, the front will clear the area by late tonight and lead to mostly clear skies by Monday morning. Lows for your Monday morning behind the front will drop back into the middle 50s. With mostly sunny skies and a returning easterly and southeasterly breeze for Monday afternoon, we’ll have highs bounce back into the middle to upper 70s. That will feel refreshing after our early taste of summer we had for much of the past week.


Sticking with Doug’s pattern, though, we’ll watch for another system to work in on Tuesday. Even with highs back near 80°, we’ll watch for another chance for strong to severe t-storms Tuesday morning. Then, another chance for severe t-storms late Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday evening.


While we back our rain chances down to a few isolated t-storms Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll definitely trend warmer with highs back in the middle 80s. By Friday, another system will head our way with highs pushing into the upper 80s. That airmass ahead of another upper-level wave and another front will set us up for strong to severe t-storm chances late Friday afternoon and into late Friday night.


Latest indications show that we’ll have some lingering t-storms with mostly cloudy skies for Saturday. The severe threat should trend a little lower for Saturday. However, that setup could bring highs back down into the lower 70s for Saturday. Don’t forget that Doug’s long range forecast is below. Have a great Sunday!


May 22nd-28th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday with a severe threat.  Looks good through the middle of the week with thunderstorm chances returning as we head into the holiday weekend.

May 29th-June 4th:  Mild Sunday before we warm up for the rest of the week. Slight t-storm chances Sunday before a severe threat returns with t-storms Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm temperatures all week long. Slight t-storm chances on Monday. Watching a severe threat with t-storms on Wednesday. T-storms on Thursday followed by a dry Friday and another severe threat with Saturday’s t-storms.

June 12th-18th:  Warm Sunday followed by a hot period Monday through Wednesday. Warm for the remainder of the week. T-storm chances with a severe threat Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. A higher severe threat with t-storms on Thursday before we dry out for the weekend.