Warming up for Tuesday with t-storm chances to watch – Nick

Other t-storm chances to watch in the extended forecast

Good Monday evening, everyone. After Sunday’s t-storms and severe weather to wrap up the past weekend, we deserved a nice day around here. That’s exactly what we got with mostly sunny skies from start to finish today. That sunshine, the light breeze and drier air allowed temperatures to go from the lower to middle 50s this morning to about 80° this afternoon. While it was nice that a quick area of high pressure kept us quiet, we have a warm front coming our way from the southwest and a cold front coming from the west. Both will change our weather up starting Tuesday morning.


If you saw on the surface map above, t-storms have fired up along the warm front across southern Colorado, eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle. Those t-storms will get in here by the time we hit 6 o’clock or 7 o’clock Tuesday morning. While they shouldn’t be severe, they could be a bit strong with some moderate to heavy pockets of rain. Otherwise, we’ll have lows Tuesday morning drop back into the upper 50s as the cloud cover on the increase.


The t-storms coming through will be an issue for the morning hours. Despite that, we’ll see some dry time to start the afternoon out. With the approaching warm front, we will see a returning south wind warm us up throughout the day. We’ll push into the upper 70s by the noon hour and into the lower 80s for our afternoon highs.


Then, our attention will turn to the t-storm chances for Tuesday evening, Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. There is a low risk for some severe weather for areas north of I-44 with wind and hail being the main threats. We’re keeping all potential threats low for the time being. If we need to adjust this as we go into Tuesday, we will do so.


As for timing, you could see from above that we’ll watch for this severe threat between 7 PM at the earliest until about 3 o’clock Wednesday morning. As for the start of Tuesday evening, the atmosphere is expected to have a pretty good cap (or good layer of warm air aloft) in place to keep us dry. If any moisture can burst through the cap (which isn’t looking very likely), we could see a few isolated or widely scattered t-storms affect some our western counties. If they can develop, they could certainly be strong to severe. This is something we’ll watch very closely through the course of the day ahead.


As the better upper-level support starts to come in late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning with the approaching cold front, we’ll see more organized t-storms with a wind and hail threat come from the northwest and work across the northern half of the viewing area. While the prime severe threat should pass us by 3 AM Wednesday, we’ll have some of these scattered t-storms stick with us to start the Wednesday AM drive out.


The cold front will park itself near the I-44 corridor as we work through Wednesday. While partly sunny skies will return for the day, the front could spark a few isolated t-storms late in the afternoon. Otherwise, we’ll stay on the warm side with highs in the lower to middle 80s across much of the area.


The front and some upper-level energy could spark some additional t-storms for Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Otherwise, we’ll stay warm for Thursday with highs in the middle 80s under partly sunny skies. By Friday, another cold front with additional upper-level energy will come our way. While the day will start dry with highs topping out in the middle 80s, the approaching front will fire up scattered t-storms across the southeastern half of the viewing area late Friday afternoon and into Friday night. With these t-storms posing a threat to turn strong to severe, we’ll keep a close eye on this setup over the next several days.


While the front will move along Saturday, it and the upper-level energy will be slow to move on out. That means we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and t-storms for much of the day. On the plus side, highs in the middle 60s will feel really refreshing (if not a bit chilly) compared to the early taste of summer warmth and humidity we had for the past week to 2 weeks. After a quiet Sunday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s, we’ll head back into the lower 70s on Monday. While we’ll trend warmer by Monday, another system with t-storms and a potential severe threat will head our way.


You can see that we’ll be a bit busy keeping an eye on multiple rain chances this week and for early next week. Beyond the next seven days, Doug has your updated long-range forecast out through the middle of June down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!


May 24nd-28th: Mild through the rest of the week except for a warm Friday. T-storm chances with a severe threat Tuesday before we dry out for Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll have slight t-storm chances with a severe threat Friday before better t-storm chances return Saturday with another severe threat.

May 29th-June 4th:  Warm temperatures all week long. Slight rain and t-storm chances for both Monday and Tuesday. We’ll watch for better t-storm chances with a severe threat Wednesday and Thursday. Slight t-storm chances with a severe threat for Friday before more scattered t-storms with another severe threat for our Saturday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm temperatures all week long. Slight t-storm chances on Monday. Watching a severe threat with t-storms on Wednesday. T-storms on Thursday followed by a dry Friday and another severe threat with Saturday’s t-storms.

June 12th-18th:  Warm Sunday followed by a hot period Monday through Wednesday. Warm for the remainder of the week. T-storm chances with a severe threat Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. A higher severe threat with t-storms on Thursday before we dry out for the weekend.