Tuesday AM Blog: Warming up, but a very active next two weeks. Long range HP forecast
Warming up but an active pattern.
Good Tuesday morning! I hope the week has started off great! Mine has been pretty good so far. I am glad we will see some sun today. The sun will return today. It will be a little chilly with highs into the mid 40s and a NW wind really kicking in at 20 mph. Take a look at the radar below. This storm system is working away from the area.
Take a look at the radar below.
Big warm-up for us on Wednesday. Highs right around 60.
Our next system rolls in on Thursday. However, it is a fast moving week system that will just give us a random shower but will drag a cold front through the area. So we need to watch Friday with our next wave that works in. We will be right on the line or freezing line. But could see a wintry mix or light snow.
We have another wave we need to watch on Sunday with rain and snow chances. Then yet again, another system on Tuesday.
Now this system is interesting. Remember, in the Heady Pattern, we are roughly in a 50-51 day cycle. This is the system that gave us a 3-6″ snow back on November 11th and 12th. So, lets see what it can do this time around. Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: Mainly rain chances on Sunday. However, if enough cold air can work in, we could get some snow mixing in. Turning colder the rest of the week. Snow chances, late Monday and into Tuesday. Then slight chances for snow on Thursday and Friday.
February 25th-March 2nd: Most of the week will be cool with slight chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday. Warming up late in the week with rain chances by the weekend.
March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.
March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.
March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week.
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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