Tuesday AM Blog: The deep chill, next couple of days. But big improvements

Turning much colder
Tuesday AM Blog:  The deep chill, next couple of days.  But big improvements

Good Tuesday morning! I hope your week is going great! My Monday was pretty good, it was busy but good. I think I am over the Chiefs loss now, but ask me on Sunday during the Super Bowl me. Wow! It got super cold outside. At least it gets a little better today as we climb back into the upper 30s prior to our next arctic front. This is going to roll in during the afternoon. Here is your day planner below. We will really drop late this afternoon. Now, a few snow showers very possibly with some of the bands that pop up. I don’t think this will be a big deal, but a few areas could get a quick dusting.

Tuesday AM Blog:  The deep chill, next couple of days.  But big improvements

Take a look at the radar below and where the snow showers are as of now.

So why are we getting this next arctic outbreak? This is another polar vortex or in a sense a chunk of the polar vortex. Take a look below.

Tuesday AM Blog:  The deep chill, next couple of days.  But big improvements

In simple terms, a polar vortex is just a big chunk of arctic air. However, we did see this two cycles ago. Well a cold snap, we didn’t have arctic air back in late October. However, we did see this version of the cycle. So check out the late October version, very similar.

Tuesday AM Blog:  The deep chill, next couple of days.  But big improvements

The temp will drop to around 8 degrees tonight with a wind chill about -5 degrees. This is cold but nothing we can’t handle around here. Plus it is short lived. Look what happens by the weekend.

Tuesday AM Blog:  The deep chill, next couple of days.  But big improvements

Huge warm up with 60s returning. Crazy 4-State weather. However, things will change. We will get right back into the November version of the Heady Pattern during the month of February. Once we hit Feb. 5th, we will start to pick up.

Tuesday AM Blog:  The deep chill, next couple of days.  But big improvements

Make sure you check below for my long range forecast. #headypattern

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A mild start to the week with rain chances rolling in late Tuesday and Wednesday. If and I mean If we can get a little cooler air, maybe a little snow early on Thursday. Slight chances for snow on Friday and turning colder.

February 10th-16th: Mainly a cold week with rain and snow chances on sunday and Monday. Rain and snow chances right back in by Friday.

February 17th-24th: Another mainly cool to cold week. Rain and snow chances again on Monday and Tuesday. Staying cool and dry the rest of the week.

February 25th-March 2nd: A cool start ot the week with slight chances for rain on Monday. Turing back to mild with a very strong system working in by the weekend. This will give us thunderstorms and possibly over to snow on the backside.

March 3rd-9th: A cool first have of the week with rain on Monday and Tuesday. Mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with thunderstorms by Saturday.

March 10th-16th: A mild start to the week with rain or snow on Sunday and Monday. Turning much colder with rain or snow chances (slight) on Wednesday. Staying cool the rest of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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