Tuesday AM Blog: Showers and thunderstorms with some heavy amounts of rain.
Periods of storms
Good Tuesday morning! I hope your week started off fantastic. Mine has been pretty good. However, I have been fighting a cold sinus crud for a few days. It may be pretty much spring, but that stuff is still going around. However, I have been pretty productive the past few days. At least the temperatures have been great! It will be a gloomy day today, but at least we are going to deal with super strong storms or any frozen precip across the region. You can see the rain increasing.
Take a look at the radar below.
We are really going to see the showers and thunderstorms increasing through the morning hours. In fact, we will just have periods of thunderstorms through the day. Some of these could produce some heavy amounts of rain and even a few stronger storms. However, I am not expecting anything severe today.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and evening hours. Late evening, I expect to see a break and go to drizzle or just some random showers for most of the night. However, a big batch of showers and thunderstorms work right back in late Wednesday morning.
Some of these could be strong or even a low grade severe storm. However, I am not really worried about this as this storms system is very sheared apart. It matures to our west and will start to weaken by the time this band rolls through. This is a powerhouse storm and will have extremely low pressure with it. If you can feel in your body when the pressure drops, boy you will feel this one. I just don’t see much severe weather because this system is so sheared apart. You can see the surface low is way back in parts of Colorado. We can’t rule out a few strong storms and even some low grade severe, but I will watch it.
Rainfall amounts will be pretty decent. I think on average, most of us will get 1-3″ of rain.
Long range forecast is below.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: Cooler on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Looks like mainly highs into the 50s, so not to bad. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few showers on Tuesday and Wednesday with a weak system. Mild temperatures late in the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with a few showers on Sunday. Monday looks good with a couple of waves working in for Tuesday through Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday with a low severe threat. More thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday with a low to moderate severe threat.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.
May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.
May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.
May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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