Tuesday AM Blog: Crazy weather week!

Crazy weather week!
Tuesday AM Blog:  Crazy weather week!

Good Tuesday morning! I hope your week has started off great! Mine has been pretty good. I finally feel like I am getting back in the swing of things. I had surgery a little over a week ago. I was in a knife fight and lost the fight. Obviously the knife was the surgery! But I am feeling better and feel a mainly back to myself now. What a weather week we will have this week. I am pretty happy with this new Heady Pattern this year. Don’t let me forget, WINTER FORECAST tonight at 9 and 10. I will also post a web production of it as well. The new Heady Pattern started right at the beginning of fall. So we are now about 2 months into the pattern. Remember, the cycle started earlier, about August 5th-10th of this past year. It varies just a bit from year to year. But we are about to enter the 3rd cycle. Well we are close, but getting there. That means the first cycle was a mix of the new and the old pattern. However, the second cycle has been all the new pattern. There are a lot of things I like in the this pattern, but also some I am not fond of. We are in the warmer part of the pattern, but if you like cold air, you will get plenty this winter. I will go over the 3 main storm tracks, how much snow and ice, precip and what to expect all winter tonight on the winter forecast. I will probably do a video blog and post on here to cover it all. Okay, lets get it!

Take a look at the radar below.

We have a developing storm system, really right on top of us. We are right along the trough axis or the area that storms will mature with this pattern. We will often see storms that dump a ton of rain or snow along and south of I-44, but the farther north and west you travel it will greatly cut-off. This system will mature over us and and just east. We will see a few showers and drizzle this morning.

Tuesday AM Blog:  Crazy weather week!

We will break out and see some some by late morning and early afternoon. We will quickly warm and push 70 this afternoon. However, extremely windy south winds with gusts in the 40-45 mph range.

Tuesday AM Blog:  Crazy weather week!

As a dryline shifts through by mid-afternoon, a line of showers and thunderstorms will develop, mainly after 3pm. These will mainly fire across SE KS and then shift quickly into SW MO and NW AR. I don’t expect much to develop in NE OK, but will watch it. This will most likely go strong to severe very quickly with the main threat by far being high winds and large hail. I think the tornado threat is low but will watch it. I think most of these will be east by mid evening and the highest severe potential being east of the region in central MO. Again, I will keep my eyes on it today. We have a series of systems this week.

Tuesday AM Blog:  Crazy weather week!

You can see system one across the central plains, but system two and three are right behind it. You can see the line of storms trying to develop by late afternoon.

Tuesday AM Blog:  Crazy weather week!

If you are traveling, this same system will produce upwards of a foot of snow across Nebraska, crazy! Much cooler and calm on Wednesday. Then storm system number 2 moves in early on Thanksgiving morning.

Tuesday AM Blog:  Crazy weather week!

I do think we will warm enough on Thanksgiving that this will be mainly rain. However, we could have a brief rain/snow mix on Thanksgiving morning before we transition to cold rain through the day. Again, mainly snow north of I-70 if you are traveling. Wave number 3, comes in on Friday and Saturday with more showers and thunderstorms that could be on the strong side. Check out the long range forecast below. Also remember, winter forecast tonight.

#headypattern

-Doug

Long range forecast through late next January:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cool start to the week with a weak system on Wednesday with rain or snow chances. Our next two waves roll in by the weekend. Rain and snow chances increase late Friday, but the better chances hold off until the 7th and 8th.

December 8th – 14th: Rain over to snow on Sunday and Monday. Staying cold through the middle of the week with mild temperatures returning late in the week. Slight chances for rain on Friday with a weak system.

December 15th – 21st: Next storm system rolls in on Monday and Tuesday. This will give us rain chances with much colder temperatures for the rest of the week. Rain and snow chances return on Thursday.

December 22nd – 28th: Mainly a cold week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday. Some light snow could linger into Christmas Eve. Another system with rain and snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

December 29th – January4th: Mainly another cold week. Just a slight chance for rain on Thursday and Saturday with weak fast moving waves.

January 5th – 11th: Rain, snow and ice chances to start the week. Then mainly cold again with rain and snow chances on Thursday. A fast wave over the weekend with a few rain or snow showers.

January 12th-18th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. A weak mid-week wave with a few showers. Bigger system moves in by the weekend.

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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