Tuesday AM Blog: Crazy temperatures this week with a few storms systems
Good Tuesday morning! I hope your week has started off great! Mine has been pretty good. I really fought the migraines over the weekend, but in general it was a pretty good weekend. The weather wasn’t to shabby either. We know we haven’t had much snow, but we have had plenty of ice. Winter isn’t done yet, but our winter weather chances are decreasing. Remember, in the HP (Heady Pattern) we have gone through 4 complete 51 day cycles and our currently on the 5th cycle. This has been a very active pattern, but we just haven’t been in the exact right spot for big snows. However, I do think severe weather season will be above average. We average 8-12 severe events prior to June 10th. I think we will pass 12 events. My long range forecast is below through the whole spring. We need to watch 3 waves this week. Arctic air by the weekend and two systems next week.
So what is moving in for us today?
Take a look at the radar below.
Most of us will be pushing 60 degrees. However, a lot of clouds and drizzle developing by the evening hours. We will have light showers and drizzle tonight as a weak wave rolls through.
Light showers and drizzle with a cold front slipping through late tonight. Dropping temperatures into the lower 30s on Wednesday. We will continue with a few bouts of drizzle or light showers on Wednesday. Another weak wave on Wednesday night and Thursday morning with some light showers, drizzle and even some freezing drizzle. I don’t think this will be a big deal, but I will watch it.
Another wave late Friday and Saturday will mature as it passes by, so I will keep it just cloudy for now. However, a big arctic blast works in on Sunday.
This is going to give us very cold temperatures through at least the middle of next week. Our November 23rd wave (2 cycles ago) rolls out on Monday. Here is Nov. 23rd.
Lets take a look at this wave on Monday.
This will give us some snow chances on Monday. Plus a second wave rolls in around Thursday with rain and snow chances. None of these are monster storms, but a ton to watch. I will keep you updated. Long range forecast is below all the way through the spring. You can easily pick out the severe weather dates.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: Turning sharply colder with arctic air working in to start the week. Snow chances on Monday and into Tuesday morning. Staying cold with another system on Thursday and Friday with rain and snow chances.
March 10th-16th: Mainly a cool week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday. Another system back in on Wednesday and Thursday with rain and snow chances. I do think these systems will mainly be rain, but there is still a chance. Staying cool into the weekend.
March 17th-23rd: A cool start to the week with some showers. Mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with showers on Wednesday and Thursday.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Cooler for the weekend.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.
May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.
May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.
May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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