Tropical Update – September 15, 2020

Four systems with three other waves in the Atlantic
Tropicalupdate

All the action in our latest look at the Tropics continues over in the Atlantic Basin. The only system close to land is Hurricane Sally with the latest advisory placing it just off the Gulf Coast south of Mobile, Alabama. With a slower movement to the north at 2 mph, the hurricane has encountered upwelling of cooler water, some wind shear from the west and is running into friction caused by the interfering land. This means Sally will make landfall Wednesday as a Category 1 Hurricane  and weaken as it works over Alabama and the southeast over the next few days. While this hurricane won’t be known for its wind speeds, it’ll produce dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall that’ll lead to flooding and rain amounts pushing over a foot to 2 feet. While Tropical Storm Vicky and Hurricane Paulette will continue to stay over open water and weaken over the next several days, we’ll continue to watch Teddy. It may be a tropical storm this evening, but it’ll turn into a hurricane tomorrow and a major hurricane by this weekend.

As for other waves to watch, we still have a low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico producing disorganized rain and t-storms. Even with slow movement, we see a 20% chance of development within the next 5 days. The next wave likely to develop will be the one south of the Cabo Verde Islands. As it’ll continue to move westward into the weekend, it’ll have a 70% chance within the next 5 days to develop into a depression. The last wave is actually a non-tropical low located over the far northeastern Atlantic. With a slightly favorable environment allowing for some subtropical characteristics to develop within the next 5 days, this wave has a 20% chance to become a subtropical depression.