Tropical update – May 16th, 2020

Before the season starts, we have our first named Atlantic storm

The official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season isn’t for another 16 days. However, a low in the northwestern Bahamas has developed into Tropical Storm Arthur this evening. The 10 PM CDT advisory has Arthur containing 40 mph winds as it continues to move to the north-northeast at 13 mph. As Arthur continues to work over relatively warm Atlantic waters with very little shear, it’ll strengthen throughout Sunday and head close the North Carolina coast by Monday morning. Not only is the track of Arthur prompting Tropical Storm Watches along the North Carolina coast, it’ll be due to Arthur possibly sustaining 60 mph wind speeds as it nears the coast Monday morning. By Monday evening and Tuesday, it’ll take a more easterly track and carry it into open Atlantic waters north of Bermuda. Even if areas along the Atlantic Coast from Florida up to the Carolinas don’t get a direct hit from Arthur, the winds could cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions through the middle of the upcoming week. We’ll continue to track Arthur as we work into the week ahead.