A big system is working in as we head into Friday

Big system working in.

Some flash flood watches are already active for parts of the 4-States.

Good Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been pretty good.  I need to get some laundry done before I head to work.  I am not sure how it accumulates so fast.  I think my son is throwing his clean clothes in the dirty laundry so he doesn’t have to put it away.  I need a nanny cam in his room.  The weather has been great so far this week.  However, the clouds are here to stay for a few days, but our temperatures still look pretty good.  We will climb into the lower 60s again today.  However, we are going to have the on and off light showers.  Plus the winds are going to be cranking.  We will have gusts near 50 mph at times.  That is crazy.  The main wave rolls in tomorrow.  Showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day, especially the afternoon.

Some of these storms could be strong to severe.  The best chance for severe thunderstorms is along and south of I-44.  The main threat is wind and hail, but still a low tornado threat.  Also, I think we could see 1-3″ of rain which is a ton.  That is why we are under a flash flood watch.

A very strong cold front will line up in our northern counties on Friday evening.  This has some arctic air, so the temperature contrast will be pretty great.  I would say a 35-40 degree swing from our northern counties to our southern counties.  However, the main upper level wave tracks out on Saturday a hair south of us.  This is what will give us some wintry weather.  Remember, in the Heady Pattern this gave us snowlast time as well in November, so right on track.

We will see a switch over to light freezing rain and sleet late Friday night.  We will continue with sleet on Saturday morning and then eventually all over to snow.

Because along and south of I-44 will see majority sleet, I have to keep the amounts low.  However, the sleet could cause worse roads than the snow areas.  I will have to fine tune this over the next 60 hours, but this is my initial thought.

Check out my long range forecast below based off the Heady Pattern.

Long range forecast through late February:

Next Week: Warming back up early in the week.  We have a weak system on Monday, but I don’t expect much from it.  Some rain chances in on Tuesday and Wednesday.  If we can get enough cold air, we could see some wintry weather, especially on Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week.  Rain and snow chances back in by the weekend.

January 19th – 25th:  Rain and snow chances on Sunday with our storm system.  Cold on Monday, but should be dry.  Rain and snow chances back in on Tuesday.  Then cold the rest of the week with another shot for rain and snow on Saturday.

January 26th – February 1st: Warming up early in the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Colder with snow chances on Wednesday.  Staying cool the rest of the week with rain chances on Saturday.

February 2nd-8th:  A cool start but mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, we could end with a little snow by Friday.

February 9th-15th:  A cool first half of the week with slight chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday.  A bigger system with rain and snow chances on Friday.

February 16th-22nd:  Mainly a cool week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and then again on Thursday and Friday.

February 23rd-29th:  A mild start but a cold finish to the week.  Rain and snow chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mainly dry and cool the rest of the week.

February:  Very active and cold middle of the month with several shots for snow!

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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