Thursday Night Blog: Warming up, active February and your long range forecast.

Warming up
Thursday Night Blog:  Warming up, active February and your long range forecast.

Good Thursday night! I hope your week has been great! I am just super happy we are out of the deep freeze. The wind with the cold arctic air just tears right through you. It is amazing how fast we can turn the weather around in the 4-State area. We will continue to warm into the upper 40s on Friday. However, we are going to have the clouds and drizzle. We could see some fog as well tonight and into the morning hours. Most of the showers are staying SE of the area. Take a look at the radar below.

Random showers and some drizzle stick around into Saturday. Even warmer with highs near 60.

Thursday Night Blog:  Warming up, active February and your long range forecast.

We should jump into the 60s on Sunday, but again a lot of clouds and some drizzle around. At least it looks great for the Super Bowl parties around the area.

Thursday Night Blog:  Warming up, active February and your long range forecast.

We have a couple quick moving waves on Sunday night and Tuesday night. These will give us a few showers and sharply colder by late next week. There is a wave that should pass just south of us on Thursday, but close enough we need to watch it. Besides that, it will start picking up again by next weekend. Here is a look at the upper levels.

Thursday Night Blog:  Warming up, active February and your long range forecast.

This is actually our Nov.1st system. I am looking back two cycles so about 100 days. Every other cycle mirror each other even closer.

Thursday Night Blog:  Warming up, active February and your long range forecast.

This should give us rain and snow chances back in the forecast.

Thursday Night Blog:  Warming up, active February and your long range forecast.

February really starts to pick up. Check out my long range forecast (based off the Heady Pattern) below.

#headypattern

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Mild start ot the week with fast moving waves with showers on Sunday night and then again Tuesday night. We will turn sharply cooler the rest of the week. There is a system passing to our south on Thursday. It will be close enough we need to watch it. Rain and snow chances back in on Saturday.

February 10th-16th: Mainly a cool week with snow chances on Sunday. A weak system on Tuesday with give us slight chances for showers and snow showers. A bigger system on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.

February 17th-24th: Another cold week with a moderate system on Tuesday with rain and snow chances. A weak system on Thursday with a few snow showers.

February 25th-March 2nd: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. A few showers on Monday with a big storm system brewing for the weekend.

March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.

March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.

March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week.

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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