Thursday Blog: Pattern is really picking up
Pattern is really picking up
Good Thursday afternoon! I hope your week is going great so far. Mine has been good, but busy. I am trying to knock out a little work before I actually get to work. Well today’s weather is shaping up nice. We will pop into the mid 50s, but the winds are moving. However, they are helping our temperatures warm up.
Take a look at the radar below.
We have several storm systems working in over the next couple of weeks. We are entering an active stretch of the Heady Pattern. We are well into the 2nd cycle of this pattern. Remember, the pattern started the 3rd week of September. They cycle started a couple months prior to that, so we have actually gone through 3 full cycles but we are in the 2nd of this current pattern is that makes sense. So what does all of this mean. Because this is a recurring cycle, I have seen all of the storm systems we are going to get for the winter and into the spring months. We aren’t in the best spot for big snows this winter, but we do have about 2 good shots for good winter storms over the next 3 months. When I say good, I am talking 6″ plus. However, we have numerous storms that will give us small to moderate storms. So lets look at what is coming as of now. We will stay in the 50s and windy today and on Friday. There is a weak wave Friday night and Saturday morning.
This will stay mainly north of us and it doesn’t have much moisture. However, it could give us a random shower Friday night and Saturday morning. It will also drag in a cold front that will greatly drop our temperatures for Saturday and Sunday. We will stay in the 30s to near 40 on Saturday and Sunday. The next wave starts developing on Sunday. This isn’t a big system, but strong enough to give us rain and wintry weather.
You can see the wave kicks out just north of us, like it should in the pattern. We will have a warm front approaching on Sunday, so this will produce some moisture during the day on Sunday.
Most likely, north of I-44, we will have a rain snow mix. The farther north you travel it will be all snow. I think it should be mainly snow north of a line from Independence-Parsons-Pittsburg-Lamar. We could have and inch or two of snow that falls north of that line. For the metro, I think it will be a rain/snow mix, maybe some slushy accumulations but it shouldn’t be a big deal. What could change? If the colder air sinks a hair farther south, then we will get accumulations. That is what I will be watching for. As we work into Sunday night, the main wave kicks out. More moisture develops and rain develops south of I-44 with rain/sleet and snow through the metro. Sleet and snow mainly north of Pitt-Lamar. Lets jump to early Monday.
As a little warmer air pushes north, this will keep areas south of I-44 mainly rain. North of I-44 will be sleet and snow. This should push out of here by Monday afternoon. I do think we will have sleet and snow accumulations north of I-44 but I will keep them on the low side for now as we continue to watch this system working in over the next few days. We will have to adjust a bit as we will be right on that rain/snow line which seems to be the issue for us all the time. What is next? Another system works in next Friday and Saturday. This will also be a rain to snow event. Then again, we will have rain and snow chances on Christmas. So it will be pretty active. Take a look at the long range forecast below.
Long range forecast through late next January:
Next Week: Rain/sleet and snow on Sunday and Monday. It stays cool through the middle of the week. We will warm a bit with rain and snow chances back in on Friday and Saturday.
December 22nd – 28th: We will warm back up early in the week with our next system rolling in on Christmas Eve and Day. This should be a rain over to sleet to snow event, so we need to watch it. Staying cold and dry the rest of the week.
December 29th – January4th: Mainly a cool week with a system on New Years Eve and Day. This will give us showers but possibly over to snow by Thursday the 2nd. Cold the rest of the week.
January 5th – 11th: A mild start with a system working in on Monday. This will start as rain and likely go to snow on Monday. Staying cold through the week with snow showers on Thursday.
January 12th-18th: A cool start to the week but mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Rain works in on Thursday that could go to snow with much colder temperatures on Friday.
January 19th-25th: Cool with showers on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. A bigger system on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.
January 26th-February 1st: A cool start but a mild finish with just a few showers on Friday.
February: Very active and cold middle of the month with several shots for snow!
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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