Thursday AM Blog: Weekend storm system and long range forecast
Good Thursday morning! I hope you are all having a great week. We are now on the downhill slide into the weekend. Is anyone else a little worried how fast this rollercoaster ride on the planet is passing by? Blows my mind. At least we are going to start to warm up a bit. 50s return, and we are dry today.
Take a look at the radar below.
So where are we in the pattern? Remember, the HP (Heady Pattern) officially begans around September 21st. However, the cycle starts well before that as we morph form one pattern to another. So we are roughly in the 5th cycle already and the 4th since the pattern has been set. So lets look at this next system. Let me show you where we are in the pattern.
This system will kick out most likely between Joplin and KC. Lets look back one cycle on January 1st.
You can see this exact system. Lets go back two cycles to November 11th and 12th.
Again, the exact same system. We could even go back to late September and see the exact same thing. So what will this system do? We will be in the warm sector of the system with showers on Friday and scattered thunderstorms into Saturday afternoon.
I do think most of the severe weather will stay south of the region, but I will keep my eyes on it. On the backside of the system, it will spread very heavy snow across KS, and into NW MO. Most likely KC and points north will get hit YET ONCE AGAIN, ugh! I will keep you updated. Long range forecast is below through the entire spring.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: A cool start to the week with another cold front working in on Tuesday. With it, we could see a light mix across the area. The rest of the week will stay cool with slight chances for rain and snow on Thursday.
March 3rd-9th: Cool with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday. Rain chances with mild temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. Cooling down the rest of the week.
March 10th-16th: A cool start to the week with slight chances for rain and snow on Sunday. Warming up by mid week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Cooling down into the weekend.
March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.
May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.
May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.
May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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