Thursday AM Blog: The winds continue, also turning colder.

The winds continue, also turning colder.
Thursday AM Blog:  The winds continue, also turning colder.

Good Thursday morning! We are flying right through another week. Saturday and yesterday were two of the most crazy days I remember with wind around here. We have been dealing with this massive area of low pressure out across KS, now it is tearing up across the northern plains. The reason we have so much wind is because the pressure was so low. In fact, it was as low as a cat. 2 hurricane. The reason we get wind is due to the Low pressure and High pressure trying to equal out pressure. So wind is created to do that.

Take a look at the radar below.

It will still be super windy today. However, the winds won’t be gusting as high. It looks like we will have winds in the 35 mph range for gusts. We are going to see a lot of clouds and even a few sprinkles. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some flurries or even a light snow shower this evening and tonight. We will see improvements on Friday. It will be chilly but the sun will return.

Thursday AM Blog:  The winds continue, also turning colder.

WEEKEND: Partly sunny skies and we will get back into the 50s which will be nice. We don’t really have a system until next Tuesday and Wednesday. This should be weak and give us a few showers. Here is a look at next Tuesday evening.

Thursday AM Blog:  The winds continue, also turning colder.

So what about our bigger systems. We will have a little stronger system work in next weekend. I think severe threat would be low with this one. However, the following week we will have a couple big systems. Especially, around Thursday and Friday (28th-29th). These will give us better chances for severe weather.

The spring: I am going to continue to focus on the spring months over the next couple of weeks. We have already had three severe events in 2019. We average 8-10 events by the end of severe weather season around June 10th. I do think we should be in the 12-13 range on events this spring. This means we will have an active spring, BUT IT DOESN’T MEAN WE WILL HAVE A TORNADO OUTBREAK. Just more chances for severe weather. We will dig into this more.

Doug

#headypattern

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cool start to the week with a few showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures return the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Showers stick around early in the week with a few weak waves rolling through. Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with another storm system with thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. We will have a slight severe threat on Friday.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.

May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.

May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.

May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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