Thursday AM Blog: One system out, and another right back in
When will winter let go?
Good Thursday morning! Wow, it is Thursday already. I hope your week is going great so far. My week has been pretty good, busy but good. Our weather pattern has been very active in February, it just seems like all we can get is ice, ugh. However, this next system should be rain over to snow which will work in over the weekend. Remember, we have gone through 3 full cycles of the Heady Pattern since it started back in late September. In fact, we are almost done with the 4th and will start the 5th shortly. This is a unique pattern that sets up early fall and I use to forecast for the following year. So lets look at what is going on now, then we will look ahead.
Take a look at the radar below.
All of the freezing drizzle has mainly passed east of the area.
Today: Becoming partly sunny and highs in the upper 30s. Here is a look at our day planner.
Friday: Partly sunny and near 50.
Saturday: Clouds increase with a cold front dropping through. Showers will increase by the evening hours. So lets jump into that. Here is our next storm system.
This isn’t a super mature wave, this is a weaker wave but I do think it will be a little stronger than projected. So lets look at the last times this rolled through. Remember, the Heady Pattern is on a 51-52 day cycle. That means this system rolled through 51-52 days prior to this weekend. Lets take a look. Here is January 11th and 12th.
Last cycle it was strong and produced heavy rains through the area, then a 2-4″ band of snow, mainly in our northern counties. So, lets go back two cycles to November 21st.
In November it was a very weak fast moving waves. Now my competitors would say this is the November 25th wave, but if you look closely, there was a little flip with storm systems and clearly isn’t that wave. So we had one strong one in January and one weak on in November. If you look closely, you can see the November 25th wave rolls in right behind it, but a weaker version. I have posted the current cycle length since last August when it developed. However, at the same time, I try not to give my secret sauce away for business purposes. So lets go another cycle back. This would be the October 1st wave, which was a fast moving wave very much projected like this time around. Now, all of the models are projecting a very heavy band of snow across SE KS and SW MO. If we can get enough cold air to work south, we could see more snow than we have in previous cycles. However, as of now, I am going to go with what has happened in the past. If you want more snow then keep your fingers crossed. So here is what I am going for accumulations as of right now.
Lets see if the colder air can work in faster. This system will get hyped due to the model projections right now. However, I am going to bank on what has happened last in the HP(Heady Pattern). As of right now, I think more of the same. This means along and south of I-44, minor accumulations of snow. Indepence-Parsons-Lamar and north, a couple inches possible. Our northern counties, Yates Center, Iola, Ft. Scott, Nevada in the 2-4″ range. Now, if the colder air can roll in a little quicker we could all get into the action. However, if I bank on what has happened all winter, then this will happen. So lets wait and see how it looks over the next few days, I will keep you updated.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: A cold start to the week with snow showers on Monday. Staying cool with slight chances for rain on Thursday. However, warming up for the weekend.
March 10th-16th: Mainly a cool week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday. Another system back in on Wednesday and Thursday with rain and snow chances. Could even see thunderstorms on Wednesday before the colder air works in. I do think these systems will mainly be rain, but there is still a chance. Staying cool into the weekend.
March 17th-23rd: A cool start to the week with some showers. Mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with showers on Wednesday and Thursday.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Cooler for the weekend.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.
May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.
May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.
May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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