Thursday AM Blog: Ice Storm working out.

Much colder temperatures
Thursday AM Blog:  Ice Storm working out.

Good early Thursday morning. I wanted to give you a quick update on what is going to happen this morning and what is to come.

Take a look at the radar below.

We have been watching this batch work through over the past few hours. The freezing rain and sleet is now working a bit south of I-44. Again, I don’t expect many issues south of I-44. This storm system is mainly north of I-44 which will cause the ice issues. Most of this mess will be out of here by 7 or 8am this morning.

South of I-44: Light ice accums, mainly on elevated surfaces.

Along the I-44 Corridor and the Joplin Metro: Elevated surfaces icy (trees, power lines, decks) We will have some slick roads as temperatures continue to drop through the morning. Total ice will be in the 1/4-1/2″ range depending on how much sleet mixes in.

Indy-Parsons-Pitt-Lamar-Nevada-Ft. Scott-Iola-Chanute (Can’t mention every towns name): Total sleet and freezing rain accumulations will be over 1″. Now most of this will be on power lines and trees. However, we will have some slick roads and be very careful. Again, with temperatures falling today and the north wind at 10-20 mph, even after the storm passes, we will have possible power outages due to the wind.

Look how the temperatures drop through the daytime hours.

Thursday AM Blog:  Ice Storm working out.

Temperatures will drop near 10 degrees tonight.

Thursday AM Blog:  Ice Storm working out.

Next storm system will be in on Sunday. Take a look at my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Chilly 40s to start the week but we could see a rain/snow mix on Sunday, especially our northern counties. Showers on Monday ahead of a much stronger system on Tuesday. As of right now, mainly rain but could see some snow on the backside on Tuesday. Staying chilly the rest of the week with rain chances on Friday.

February 10th-16th: Again, mainly a cool week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday. However, snow chances work in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Staying cold the rest of the week with snow showers on Friday and Saturday.

February 17th-24th: Another cold week with a moderate system on Tuesday with rain and snow chances. A weak system on Thursday with a few snow showers.

February 25th-March 2nd: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. A few showers on Monday with a big storm system brewing for the weekend.

March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.

March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.

March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week.

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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