Thursday AM Blog: Happy V-Day! Mild and windy but changes working in.

More winter weather.
Thursday AM Blog:  Happy V-Day! Mild and windy but changes working in.

Good Thursday morning! I hope you are having a great V-Day so far. Mine has been good, just looking over the latest on more possible wintry weather on Friday. However, I hope you all enjoy your Thursday. So lets get to it. We are right on track with the HP (Heady Pattern). We are smack dab on a 51 day cycle. We are in about a week of an active stretch of weather and actually have a couple chances for wintry weather over the next week. Wintry weather has been a little hard to come by this winter. Our southern counties have had only a couple of inches of snow. The Joplin metro is a little over 5″ with our northern counties at about 14″ for the season. So we have a wide range.

Take a look at the radar below.

Today looks like another great day. It will be windy but highs in the lower 60s. Remember, for us to get this mild in the winter, you have to have the south wind to get us up there.

Thursday AM Blog:  Happy V-Day! Mild and windy but changes working in.

A strong cold front works through this evening. We will drop back into the upper 20s and not warm up much on Friday. A weak wave, but still strong enough to produce some wintry weather will work in by mid morning on Friday.

Thursday AM Blog:  Happy V-Day! Mild and windy but changes working in.

It will be light but will be periods through the day. By evening most of this will start to work out of the are.

Thursday AM Blog:  Happy V-Day! Mild and windy but changes working in.

Our southern counties will mainly be freezing rain. The heart of the veiwing area will mainly be sleet. Northern counties will mainly be snow. Here is what I am thinking on amounts as of now.

Thursday AM Blog:  Happy V-Day! Mild and windy but changes working in.

Ice is so hard to figure out. Let me show you why.

Thursday AM Blog:  Happy V-Day! Mild and windy but changes working in.

With rain, we are above freezing through the atmosphere.

Freezing rain, we have a very shallow area of cold air at the surface.

Sleet, the rain trys to get back to snow, but not enough cold air to get there.

Snow, we have cold air through the atmosphere. So it gets a little tricky.

#headypattern

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cold start to the week with yet another system working in late Monday and Tuesday. This will give us at least decent chances for snow on Tuesday. Staying cold the rest of the week with slight chances for rain and snow on Friday and Saturday.

February 25th-March 2nd: Slight chances for rain or snow on Sunday. Next system is in on Tuesday. Rain possibly over to a little bit of snow on the backside. Dry the rest of the week with warmer temperatures by the weekend.

March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.

March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.

March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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