Thursday AM Blog: Continuing to warm up, but thunderstorms increase.
Good Thursday morning! Yet another week flying on by. At least we are much warmer than what we have been. Plus we will continue to warm up over the next few days. We do have a weak wave rolling through. However, most of the moisture is north of us.
Take a look at the radar below.
We will have a lot of clouds today. We could see a little drizzle developing late in the day. Here is your day planner.
You can see most of the moisture is really east and north of the area tonight. However, I do think we will have drizzle into Friday morning.
The next storm system is Friday night and Saturday morning. This is a much stronger system and will give us scattered thunderstorms Friday night. Also, a band of storms on Saturday morning. This is our November 28th system and January18th storm in the HP (Heady Pattern).
I do think we could have some early morning strong storms and even a slight chance for low grade severe. However, b/c the system is rolling through in the morning, it puts the best shot for severe weather SE and of the area. I will watch it though and keep you updated. Below are the dates of our best chances for severe weather. Plus my long range week by week forecast.
March 29th, April 7th, 10th, 14th, 22nd, 29th, May 2nd, 19th, 24th. We will dig into these more in the next blog.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: A cool start on Sunday. Slowly warming up for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe threat is low but will watch it. Staying pretty cold the rest of the week.
March 17th-23rd: Starting mild with scattered showers on Monday and Tuesday. We could end with a little snow, but chances are low. Then again, mainly cool the rest of the week.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Sunday and Monday. Thunderstorms return on thursday and Friday with a slight chance for severe weather on Friday.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.
May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.
May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.
May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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