Staying warm for our Sunday – Nick

Good taste of fall lined up for the coming week

Good Saturday evening, everyone. We all started off on a nice note under mostly sunny skies this morning before some clouds managed to return during the afternoon. Even with some returning clouds and lows in the lower to middle 60s this morning, we saw highs bounce back near 90° this afternoon. Thankfully, that’s just a touch warmer from the upper 80s we saw Friday afternoon.


Let’s break down our weather setup. At the surface, we don’t have any big features dictating our setup. The big feature at the surface we’re watching is our next cold front working across the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies. That system will come into play as we head into late Monday and Tuesday.


The jet stream setup shows the upper-level low near Portland, Oregon ready to push the front in our direction. Before it can, we have to spend a few more days underneath the upper-level ridge. While that would normally mean temperatures pushing into the lower 90s at this point in the month, a cutoff low over Louisiana will also play a role in our forecast for Sunday as we wrap up our final weekend of the summer season.


With mostly clear skies staying in place with a light easterly breeze tonight and into Sunday morning, that will allow low to drop near 67 across the region.


The day will start mostly sunny before we see some partly sunny skies return by late morning and into the afternoon. With the cutoff low to our south, it may try to bring a few isolated showers or t-storms to a couple spots in our southeastern counties near Table Rock Lake. Otherwise, we’ll all be warm for our Sunday afternoon with highs topping out around 88.


For Monday, we’ll start the new work/school week out with the cutoff low to our south dissipating. That will allow the stronger upper-level wave and front to our northwest to start heading in. Before the arrival of the front, we’ll start Monday out with lows around 70 before we briefly head back into the lower 90s for the upcoming afternoon. With the approaching front, we’ll keep skies partly sunny and dry for much of the day. We can see, however, that the front will start to develop showers and t-storms off to our west and northwest late in the day.


As we get into Monday evening, the front will bring in our best shot for scattered rain and t-storms for the entire week. While I don’t see a big severe threat with this front and the rain chances that will work through Monday night and into Tuesday morning, we can’t rule out some strong t-storms with some heavy rainfall, small hail and some minor wind gusts.


After some early morning rain chances on our Tuesday, the jet setup below paints a much cooler picture across the region. With the upper-level low pushing the front through and the jet to our south, we’ll go from lows in the lower 60s to highs around 75 for the afternoon.


That setup leads to a great start to the fall season on Wednesday. After lows drop into the middle 50s, highs will top out around 74 for the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. By Thursday, you can see how the Future Track wants to bring the jet stream back in our direction. While not a dramatic bump in temperatures, we’ll have highs push back into the upper 70s on Thursday under mostly sunny skies.


As we head into the first full weekend of the fall season, the jet stream below will be right back on top of the region. That will mean warm temperatures will be in play as we stay dry under partly sunny skies. While lows will be around 60 for Friday and Saturday, we’ll see highs both days top out in the middle 80s.


Have a good night and a great Sunday!