Staying quite warm for Saturday and the next few days – Nick

Nice taste of fall lined up down the road

Good Friday evening, everyone. While we kept quiet under partly to mostly sunny skies to start this weekend out, we had temperatures trend just a hair cooler due to our easterly and northeasterly breeze during our Friday afternoon. After we saw highs around 90° for Thursday, we topped out mainly in the upper 80s (89° at Joplin Regional) after we started in the middle to upper 60s this morning.


Let’s break down our weather setup. While we kept quiet under partly to mostly sunny skies today, a cold front and stationary front parked itself just to our north during the course of the afternoon and evening. That’s where the better chances for scattered rain and t-storms stayed for today. This front will make an attempt to work in for Saturday. While it will wash out as it approaches, all it will do is keep our breeze mainly out of the east and knock our highs down a degree or two for Saturday afternoon. If you look to the northwest, you’ll notice a stronger cold front starting to develop and approach the Lower 48.


The jet stream setup shows us generally sneaking back under the upper-level ridge that is currently centered across the state of New Mexico. While we’ll keep an eye on a cutoff upper-level low to our south, the bigger focus is on the stronger upper-level low northwest of Vancouver. That will come into play as we head into next week.


With mostly clear skies and a light easterly breeze, we’ll have temperatures turn mild for our Saturday morning as lows will drop back near 65° across the region.


While the front to the north will wash out as it tries to sweep through, it’ll only be strong enough to bounce our wind direction between the east and northeast. Not only that, it may drop our highs down a degree or two while we stay dry under mostly sunny skies. We’ll still have a warm afternoon lined up with a high around 88° in Joplin and middle to upper 80s for the rest of the region.


Heading into Sunday, we’ll still find the jet stream to the north of the region. However, the upper-level low to our south will try to bring some moisture our way. While there is the slightest chance that a random shower could clip a few spots near Table Rock Lake, the vast majority of the area will remain dry under partly sunny skies as we wrap up the weekend. We’ll also keep quite warm with highs back in the upper 80s once again.


For Monday, the front out west and the strong upper-level low will be ready to roll on in. Prior to the front passing through, we’ll have temperatures start in the upper 60s in the morning and afternoon highs jump back into the lower 90s. Once we get into late Monday afternoon and into Monday evening, that’s when the front and upper-level wave will bring scattered rain and t-storm chances into the area. While nothing looks too strong or severe, it’s something we’ll still watch over the next few days.


As the front passes through and leaves the area Tuesday morning, we’ll have departing morning rain chances give way to partly sunny skies throughout the rest of the day. Not only will the skies turn brighter behind the front, the northerly wind behind the front will bring in a good taste of fall for us. Lows will drop to 59° on Tuesday morning before we see temperatures top out in the lower 70s for the afternoon. The jet stream setup for Wednesday shows the jet to our south and mostly sunny skies in action. That will result in lows around 53° and highs around 73° for Wednesday. That’s not too bad for our upcoming first day of the fall season.


While the jet will slowly work back northeast toward our area, we don’t see any storm systems wanting to work in along the northwesterly flow aloft. With skies staying partly to mostly sunny for Thursday and Friday, we’ll keep highs in the lower 80s for both afternoons. Not only are those temperatures set to be around normal for us, those are temperatures that we’ve been asking for since we started September out.


Have a good night and a great Friday!