Some rain AND a break from the heat for Sunday – Nick
The heat will want to make a return later on this week
Good early Sunday morning, everyone. Temperatures have stayed too hot for the past few days. After seeing highs top out in the upper 90s on Friday, we just had to push to a high of 100° at Joplin Regional Airport for our Saturday afternoon. While it didn’t match the record high of 101° back in 2012, just coming close to one of the record highs from that miserable summer was bad enough. Fortunately, a change in our weather setup will give us (FINALLY!) a much needed break from the heat. An upper-level wave is riding into the area and interacting with our cold front at the surface.
The wave is working with moisture and lift early this morning to drive some increasing showers and t-storms. Given how the t-storms are firing up behind the cold front, these storms will be elevated in nature. This will keep any chance for severe weather very low. However, we can’t rule out some heavy rainfall, small hail and minor wind gusts with the strongest of the t-storms this morning. Nonetheless, this will force lows to drop back into the upper 60s by sunrise.
With our rain and t-storm chances for this morning, we are expecting some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall to add up for some of us. Rain amounts will range between a quarter of an inch on the low end to almost an inch before we dry out for the afternoon.
After our mostly cloudy skies and rain chances for the morning, we’ll trend drier for the afternoon with returning partly sunny skies. The north and northeast breeze behind the cold front will allow highs to top out around 80°. Not only will a 20° drop compared to Saturday feel nice, the (MUCH) lower humidity will also feel nice during the afternoon.
Looking at the rest of this week, the passing cold front and upper-level pattern change will force the upper-level ridge back to the west for Monday.
With our area back on the cooler side of the jet under partly to mostly sunny skies, we’ll have morning lows near 60° and afternoon highs topping back out around 80° for Monday afternoon.
Tuesday will stay very nice. With mostly sunny skies, we’ll have temperatures go from the lower 60s in the morning to near 83° for the afternoon. We’ll savor the break from the heat for the next 3 days. I say that because the upper-levels ridge will start working back into the Desert Southwest. It may not be centered near us on Wednesday, but it will be strong enough to push the jet stream back to the north and send highs back near 90°.
While Thursday stays hot with highs in the lower 90s, we’ll stay dry under mostly sunny skies. Look at the setup by the start of the weekend of the 4th below, though. A frontal system and an upper-level wave will want to head our way. While this could bring a few isolated t-storms our way on Friday, this may give us a shot for more scattered t-storms on Saturday.
As far as temperatures go, we’ll stay hot with highs in the middle 90s on Friday before we’ll take a quick dip into the upper 80s for Saturday. Don’t forget that Doug’s long-range forecast is below.
July 3rd-July 9th: Hot for Sunday before we stay warm for the 4th, Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, hot temperatures return for the rest of the week. Slight t-storm chances for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.
July 10th-July 16th: Hot temperatures this week. Slight t-storm chances Tuesday, Friday and Saturday.
July 17th-July 23rd: Warm for Sunday and Monday before hot temperatures return for the rest of the week. Slight t-storm chances Sunday, Wednesday and Saturday.
July 24th-July 30th: With the exception of a warm Thursday and Friday, hot for the week. Slight t-storm chances Sunday through Wednesday.
July 31st-August 6th: Hot for much of the week before we back down to warm temperatures by Friday and Saturday. Slight t-storm chances Monday through Friday.
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