Severe threat still lined up for parts of the area Sunday – Nick

Other rain chances in the forecast for the upcoming week

Good Saturday evening, everyone. It certainly is good to be back into the swing of things after a trip home to catch up with family and adding to our family’s vinyl collection. It was also good that I made the return trip during the day on Friday before the t-storms really ramped up late last night and lasted through the morning hours today. All that rain left us an average of almost an inch of radar estimated rainfall. For areas that saw amounts push 2 to 4 inches this morning, it did result in some spots of flash flooding before that faded away throughout the day.


The rain late last night and this morning did have an impact on our temperatures. After a cold start and a mild afternoon for Friday, the clouds and rain only let Joplin Regional drop back into the upper 50s this morning. Once the rain cleared out and some sunshine returned, we hit 72° once again in Joplin today. Areas northeast of Joplin had upper 60s to lower 70s for highs while those southwest of the area saw highs push into the upper 70s today.


The reason why we had a contrast in afternoon temperatures is because of our next storm system. Today, we had a warm front lift across the area. It may produce some scattered t-storms during the pre-dawn hours and early morning hours on Sunday. However, our main focus for Sunday will be the cold front ready to swing our way from the west.


Upstairs at the jet stream level, we find ourselves temporarily on the warmer side of the jet. The last wave that pushed a front through on Wednesday is well to the northeast of us now south of Hudson Bay. Our next upper-level low is developing out in northern Utah. As it develops and passes to the northwest of us tomorrow, that and the approaching cold front will set the stage for a severe threat.


You can see how we have a good portion of the area under a low to elevated severe threat for Sunday. Like Doug said the other day, the best chance for any severe weather geographically will be from Fort Scott to Columbus to Miami to Grand Lake and points east. We don’t have a long window for severe weather as the best timing will be between 3 in the afternoon and 8 in the evening. In that window, however, any storms that get going will be capable of high wind gusts, large hail and some isolated tornadoes.


To start the overnight out, cloud cover will start to pick up once again as the advancing warm front will force temperatures to hold steady in the middle to upper 60s. Out west, you can see how the Future Track wants to show some developing t-storms south of Wichita.


Those t-storms will move into our area in a scattered fashion as they stay below severe levels. Still, the southerly wind, mostly cloudy skies and the rain chances will keep temperatures much milder to start Sunday morning out with lows in the middle to upper 60s.


We’ll get a little break in the action late in the morning and to start the afternoon out. Before the advancing cold front can fire off any t-storms, we’ll have most areas in KS and MO push into the upper 70s for afternoon highs. Once we hit about 3 in the afternoon, that’s when we’ll pay really close attention to developing showers and t-storms ahead of the cold front.


You can see how the Future Track wants to push the front and the strong to severe t-storms through the region and into areas northwest of I-44 by the start of the evening. If you noticed how the early projected storms were more cellular in nature look at how the early evening t-storms want to consolidate into more of a line. The storms late in the afternoon will certainly be capable of wind, hail and some isolated tornadoes. If the storms can form into more of a line, the threat will primarily switch to a damaging wind threat. If the line is broken as we get into the early evening, we’ll still have wind, hail and tornadoes as the threats to watch.


Once again, this threat won’t be around all evening long. Look at the Future Track by 7 in the evening below. The front wants to push the last of our t-storm chances over Table Rock Lake and into northwestern Arkansas. Once we get past 8 PM, we should be done with our severe threat and all rain chances for the rest of the night.


With the rain possibilities for the morning and late in the day, we will certainly see some more accumulating rainfall for parts of the area. While not on the scale of what we saw late Friday night and into this morning, the heaviest of the rainfall could bring another half inch to an inch of rain for parts of the area.


Behind the front, we’ll have partly cloudy skies to start the day out. We’ll follow that with more returning sunshine throughout the day with a lighter north breeze in place. As far as temperatures go, we’ll go from a cool start in the middle 40s to highs in the lower 60s for Monday afternoon.


For Tuesday, we’ll see another quick warm up from lows in the upper 40s to highs back in the middle 70s under partly sunny skies. That warm up comes, however, as another frontal system approaches us from the west. That will be steered by another upper-level low that will work overhead on Wednesday. You can see how that next system will take us from a quiet Tuesday to mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain and t-storms on our Wednesday.


The latest projections show that this storm system needs a little persuasion to clear out before we head into next weekend. After another day with mostly cloudy skies and rain chances on Thursday, we’ll have just a few showers early Friday morning before we dry out for the afternoon and for Saturday. In terms of temperatures, we’ll see early morning highs in the middle 50s on Wednesday and hold in the 50s all day. Friday will start cool before we see highs back near 60° and in the middle 60s for Saturday.


It is exciting that Doug is very close to figuring out the cycle length of the pattern for the next several months. Once that gets pinned down, we’ll have a pretty good idea of how our winter, spring and upcoming summer will look. In the meantime, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast out through the middle of November down below.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!


October 31st-November 6th: Halloween looks fine right now with mild temperatures.  Staying mild through the first half of the week with showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler with showers into the weekend.

November 7th-13th:  Most of the week mild with rain by Thursday.  Turning sharply colder on Friday and Saturday.

November 14th-20th:  Cool the first half of the week with some showers on Monday.  Mild the second half of the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.