Saturday AM Blog: 3 systems to watch

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Saturday AM Blog:  3 systems to watch

Good Saturday morning! Wow, what a crazy last couple of days. February has been pretty active. I would prefer snow over all the ice we have had. This blog is going to be short and sweet. To be honest, I want to start the weekend, lol. First off, not much on the radar belwo.

Take a look at the radar below.

We will get above freezing today with highs in the upper 30s. However, a wave rolls through tonight. This will mainly stay north of the area. And it is supposed to. Remember the Heady Pattern is on a 51-52 day cycle this year. So, if we look back at the past two cycles, this is our December 27th (51-52 days ago) and our November 6th(102-104 days ago) systems. So it is suppose to stay north of us. Let me show you what pops up tonight.

Saturday AM Blog:  3 systems to watch

Snow, once again for KC. If you love snow and mad about this winter, blame it on KC, they took all of it. We will have a very light mix or some freezing drizzle. At this time I don’t expect any issues. So lets move to the next bigger system. Looking at the cycle length, this is our November 8th and December 29th systems.

Saturday AM Blog:  3 systems to watch

I hate to say this, we are right on the line once again of rain and snow. The last 3 cycles this has given us rain with snow in our northern counties and north to KC. However, I am keeping my fingers crossed on this one. We also have shot late next week.

Cheers

#headypattern

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cold start to the week with snow developing by Tuesday. As warmer air kicks in, we could switch to some rain on Wednesday. Rain and snow chances return by Friday.

February 25th-March 2nd: A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Slight chances for snow on the back side on Wednesday. Another weak wave on Thursday with slight chances for rain and snow. Staying cold the rest of the week.

March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.

March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.

March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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