Next storm system works in on Tuesday – Nick

System will also bring in a brief cooldown

Good early Tuesday morning, everyone. We kept temperatures on the hot side as we kicked off a new work/school week across the area. After seeing highs in the lower 90s on Sunday, we dropped back into the lower to middle 60s to start Monday morning out. With enough dry air still in place and a good south breeze during the day, we saw Joplin Regional hit a high of 94 with the rest of the region topping out in the lower to middle 90s yesterday afternoon.


Breaking down our weather setup, we are just about ready to see some changes roll on in. At the surface, we still have a southerly wind in place to get our Tuesday morning started However, the southerly breeze is starting to be directed by the frontal system parked just to our northwest. The stationary and cold front will start heading our way as we get deeper into the afternoon and certainly into this evening.


Upstairs at the jet stream level, there are two upper-level highs in the Lower 48. One is located over the North Carolina/Virginia border while the other is on the Arizona/Mexico border. With the two highs set up like this, an upper-level wave working across the Northern Plains is allowing the jet stream to continue to sink in our direction. That will allow the frontal system at the surface to keep on trucking this way.


Before the incoming front can do anything around here, we’ll keep quiet to start the day out. While a few clouds could try to build up to start the morning drive out, we’ll have mostly clear skies and a south breeze all across the area. That will lead to a low of 71 in Joplin and upper 60s to lower 70s across the rest of the region.


Even with partly sunny skies building in during the afternoon, the southwesterly wind will keep us quite warm (if not a bit hot) for the afternoon. Highs will push to 90 in Joplin while the rest of the area will top out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees later today. As the front starts to push in from the north, there is a slim chance we could see an isolated t-storm or two late in the afternoon.


Once we get into this evening and into tonight, that’s when we’ll see our better chances for scattered rain and t-storms develop and work in. You can see how strong the expected t-storms could get down below at 10 o’clock tonight. While some of these t-storms could be strong with some wind gusts and small hail, the t-storms will primarily be capable of moderate to heavy rain.


As the front continues to push through, the rain chances will continue to work on through as we head into the overnight and into Wednesday morning. While we’ll need the rain gear to start Wednesday morning out, we’ll at least see lows drop back into the middle to upper 60s across the area.


Unless we see any changes to the forecast, we’re expecting the rain chances on Wednesday to come to an end once we get into Wednesday afternoon. As for expected rain amounts, we’re expecting amounts to vary between a tenth of an inch on the low end and over an inch in some spots. This will all depend on where the rain sets up and pass through, though. We’ll continue to keep an eye on that.


With our weather turning dry and partly sunny by Wednesday afternoon, the easterly breeze behind the front will mean highs topping out in the middle 80s for the afternoon.


We’ll keep the skies mostly sunny and temperatures on the warm side for Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 80s across the area. After this brief cooldown, note what the Future Track below is showing for Friday. The jet stream will head back to the north as another upper-level ridge starts to build back in to our east. This will push highs back into the lower 90s as we stay mostly sunny to start the upcoming weekend out.


After we get through a quiet weekend with highs in the lower to middle 90s, we’ll keep an eye on our weather setup for early next week. The Future Track below shows another upper-level trough wanting to work across the Rocky Mountains and into the Central Plains. While we’ll stay on the hot side of the jet and keep highs in the lower 90s for Monday, this approaching feature could bring a few isolated t-storms our way for Monday afternoon. If this feature stays in the forecast, we could see an uptick in rain chances by next Tuesday.


Have a great Tuesday!