Monday starts chilly before we turn a bit mild again – Nick

Two big systems to watch for this week

Good early Monday morning, everyone. Our Christmas Holiday weekend has not been a typical one for this year. We had a windy Christmas Eve with record highs set across the area while we stayed dry. Our Christmas Day started out with highs early in the morning around 70° before we dropped into the lower 50s for Christmas morning. After that, we saw temperatures jump back into the middle 60s for Saturday afternoon. For our Sunday, we started out with temperatures in the middle 40s around Joplin before we hit a new record high of 75° at Joplin Regional. That breaks the old record of 71° set back in 2008.


Looking at our weather setup, the warm front that gave us mostly cloudy skies this afternoon and a few showers in our northern counties is well to the northeast of the immediate region. While our southerly wind continues as we get this early Monday morning underway, we have yet another cold front coming in from the west. That will switch our wind back from the northwest as we get into the AM drive.


At the jet stream level, the upper-level wave that gave us a few showers in our northern counties during the afternoon is well into the Northern Plains producing quite a bit of snow. We still find ourselves on the mild side of the jet while we keep an eye on more developing upper-level lows to the west.


With the passing cold front, we will see a cool to chilly start to the day as we get the morning drive going. By the time we start heading back to work, parts of southeast Kansas will drop back into the 40s while temperatures near 50° will be more common around the Joplin area and along the I-44 corridor. I will note that while the Future Track might be too optimistic about completely clear skies by sunrise, we will still see our mostly cloudy skies turn at least partly cloudy across the area.


Even though the northeast breeze during the day lightens up, the returning mostly cloudy skies by this afternoon will only allow temperatures to rebound near 60° across the region.


While we’ll start this evening out with mostly cloudy skies and dry weather, our next storm system at the surface and the upper levels will come our way as we head into early Tuesday morning. In fact, both systems will start picking up enough moisture to get scattered showers and t-storms going after 11 o’clock tonight and going into our early Tuesday morning. While I don’t see anything turning too strong or severe, our rain and t-storm chances could pack a punch with some heavy rainfall.


In fact, we’ll keep a close eye on how our rain and t-storm chances will line up and track across the area. While much of southeast Kansas may only range between a tenth and half an inch of rain with this system, the most likely area to see heavy rainfall will be along the I-44 corridor. While a good portion of southwest Missouri, northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas could see between half an inch and 1.5″ of rain, we’ll keep a close eye on areas near the interstate where amounts over 2 inches could certainly be possible and lead to some flooding issues.


While Tuesday starts with rain and t-storm chances during the morning, we will see at least partly sunny skies return as we dry out for the afternoon. Before another cold front can cool us back down, we’ll have highs push into the middle to upper 60s across the area.


While another quick wave could bring a few showers our way for Wednesday, we’ll stick with mostly cloudy skies and a chilly day as temperatures will top out around 53°. For Thursday, you can see how we’ll keep quiet under mostly sunny skies. With the position of the jet, it will be good to see highs back around 53° after we start in the upper 20s for Thursday morning.


While we keep things mostly cloudy, dry and mild for New Year’s Eve, we’ll stick with Doug’s pattern and watch for another strong system that will work in for New Year’s Day. That system will definitely keep us mostly cloudy all day with temperatures topping out around 63° by the start of the afternoon. While that will certainly be warm enough for this system to start as rain and t-storm chances, we need to keep an eye on the temperatures as they will quickly drop through the rest of the day.


As the temperatures drop, it will also be crucial to keep an eye on any remaining moisture as this system moves along. Any moisture still in place for Saturday night and early Sunday morning could end as some snow. We still have several days to keep an eye on this setup. One thing that looks certain is the MUCH colder temperatures behind this system as we head into next Sunday. Morning lows could drop into the middle teens and highs may only top out around 27° for the day. With a few strong systems on the board over the next several days, we’ll keep a close eye on both as we start to wrap up 2021 this week.

Have a great Monday!


Jan. 2nd-8th:  Mainly a cold week with rain or snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Jan. 9th-15th: Mild start with rain or snow chances Monday and Tuesday. Turning much colder for the rest of the week.

Jan. 16th-22nd: Mainly chilly for this week. Slight rain chances on Monday and Friday.