Monday Night/Tuesday AM Blog: Another winter weather event

Sleet and snow
Monday Night/Tuesday AM Blog:  Another winter weather event

Good Monday night. I hope your day has been great and of course you had a great weekend. Mine was fantastic, except they fly by so fast. Well another winter storm is working in. This is our 4th event in two weeks. The previous have all been ice. This one will also have ice, but we will get a nice good batch of snow. I figured I would do a video blog tonight so I can verbally break it down. Remember, we are on a 51-52 day cycle in the Heady Pattern. This system is right on track. Last couple times we got this storm was on December 31st and November 9th. Check out the radar and my video below.

Latest video blog.

Long range forecast is below.

#headypattern

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A mild start to the week with rain working in on Tuesday. Turning colder the rest of the week with slight chances for rain and snow on Thursday.

March 3rd-9th: A mild start to the week with a big system on Monday, Tuesday. Most of this will be rain, but a little snow possible on the backside. Rain returns on Thursday, then dry into the weekend.

March 10th-16th: A cool start to the week with slight chances for rain and snow on Sunday. Warming up by mid week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Cooling down into the weekend.

March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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