Missouri Election Poll: Candidates, voting trust and more
MISSOURI ELECTION PRIMARY POLL
KOAM is partnering with Gray TV in Missouri for a series of polls on a variety of topics ahead of the primary elections. The partnership gives KOAM the rights to exclusively share the poll results with viewers in our local 4-State market.
You can click on each data graphic to open it in its own window.
We’ll have more poll results leading up to the election. You can find a link to them at KOAMNewsNow.com/elections.
ABOUT THE POLL / FILTERING
SurveyUSA interviewed 2,175 Missouri adults online from May 11, 2022, through May 15, 2022. They used sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans.
Of the adults, 1,782 were identified as being registered to vote.
Of the registered voters:
- 642 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the August 2, 2022 Republican primary,
- 500 were determined to be likely to vote in the August 2, 2022 Democratic primary,
- 1,412 were determined to be likely to vote in the November 8 general election
The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
QUESTION 4: IF YOU WERE FILLING OUT YOUR BALLOT IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FOR UNITED STATES SENATE TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?
Greitens today takes 26% of the vote; incumbent Attorney General Eric Schmitt is at 17%; incumbent US Representative Vicky Hartzler is at 11%. Another current US Representative, Billy Long, takes 7% of the vote today; each of the other 16 candidates on the ballot is at 2% or less, with 28% of likely voters undecided.
Greitens draws significant strength in Southeastern Missouri, where he takes 46% of the vote, more than 4:1 ahead of Schmitt; among “very conservative” voters, where he polls at 38%, compared to 14% for Schmitt; among voters who say the endorsement of former President Trump makes them more likely to vote for a candidate (34%); among the 21% of likely Republican primary voters who say abortion should be illegal under all circumstances (31%); and among men, among those with lower household incomes, and in rural portions of Missouri, each of which give Greitens 30% of the vote. Among those likely voters who tell SurveyUSA they are “certain” to vote in the Republican primary, Greitens leads Schmitt by 13 points, and leads Hartzler by 16 points; among those who say they will “probably” vote, Greitens and Schmitt tie with 18% for each, 11 points ahead of Hartzler.
Schmitt does better among voters who say Donald Trump’s endorsement makes no difference to them, where he takes 25% of the vote; among those who say abortion should be legal with some restrictions (25%); and in suburban parts of the state (24%). Schmitt and Greitens are tied in greater St. Louis.
Hartzler, at 11% overall, takes 23% of the vote in Northern Missouri, just behind Greitens at 29%. Hartzler is also strong among the 15% of likely Republican primary voters who consider themselves to be politically independent, where she takes 19% of the vote, effectively even with Greitens at 20%.
Long significantly outpolls his overall average of 7% only in Southwestern Missouri, where the 7th Congressional District is based; Long has represented the 7th district since 2011.
QUESTION 6: IF YOU WERE FILLING OUT YOUR BALLOT IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FOR UNITED STATES SENATE TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?
In the Democratic Primary for US Senate, Marine veteran and attorney Lucas Kunce takes 10% of the vote today; registered nurse and philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine is at 8%; 9 other candidates each take 3% or less of the vote. 63% of likely voters are undecided; an undecided vote that large typically signifies that voters are not focused on this contest, and that many of those who today say they are certain to vote in the primary are doing so with a focus on other, more local contests on the ballot.
The contest should be characterized as even at this point; each candidate has advantages. Kunce leads Valentine by 11 points among voters who describe themselves as “very liberal,” by 8 points in Greater Kansas City, and by 7 in rural Missouri. Valentine leads by 6 points among the 15% of likely Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as political independents, by 3 points in greater St. Louis, and by a nominal 2 points in Southwestern Missouri. Businessman Spencer Toder, at 3% overall, has 10%, leading the field, among the 1 in 10 Democratic primary voters who say they are conservatives.
Kunce leads Valentine by 5 points among those who say they are certain to vote in the Democratic primary; Valentine leads by 7 among those who say they will probably vote. Among men, Valentine leads by 3; among women, Kunce leads by 6 – a 9-point gender gap. Kunce leads Valentine by 5 points among voters over age 65, typically the most reliable; the race is tied among Kunce, Valentine, and Toder with the youngest voters, typically the least reliable.
QUESTION 7: HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DO YOU HAVE THAT VOTES CAST IN THE PRIMARY ELECTION FOR UNITED STATES SENATE WILL BE COUNTED ACCURATELY?
Registered voters are, by and large, confident that votes in the August primary will be counted accurately. 70% of registered voters are confident votes will be counted accurately (34% have confidence, 36% have some confidence); 24% are not confident (17% have little confidence, 7% have none.) 57% of Democrats say they have full confidence, compared to 30% of independents and 22% of Republicans; 32% of Republicans and 29% of independents have little or no confidence, compared with 9% of Democrats.
Thinking ahead to the fall now … Missouri will hold a general election for United States Senate and for other contests in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? Are you … certain to vote in the November election this year? Will you probably vote? Are the chances you will vote about 50/50? Or will you probably not vote?
1,782 Registered Voters answered this question.
Looking ahead to the November general election for United States Senate, SurveyUSA asked likely November voters how they would vote in hypothetical matchups between the leading Republican and Democratic candidates. Republicans lead in each of the six potential races. Should Trudy Busch Valentine be the Democratic nominee …
- Eric Schmitt defeats Valentine by 13 points, 47% to 34%, with 19% undecided.
- Vicky Hartzler defeats Valentine by 11 points, 44% to 33%; 23% are undecided.
- Eric Greitens leads Valentine by 6 points, 43% to 37%, with 20% undecided.
If Lucas Kunce is the nominee, a similar tale:
- Eric Schmitt defeats Kunce by 12 points, 46% to 34%, with 19% undecided.
- Vicky Hartzler defeats Kunce by 14 points, 45% to 31%; 24% are undecided.
- Eric Greitens leads Kunce by 6 points, 42% to 36%, with 22% undecided.
Greitens consistently underperforms Schmitt and Hartzler among three groups:
- Among those with household incomes more than $80K a year, 30% of the November electorate, Greitens polls an average of 16 points behind his GOP rivals. Hartzler and Schmitt lead by an average of 7.5 percentage points among these upper-income voters; Greitens trails by an average of 8.5%.
- Among the 23% of November voters who identify as political independents, Greitens polls an average of 13 points behind Hartzler and Schmitt, who lead among independents by an average of 8.5 points; Greitens loses independents by an average of 4.5 points.
- Among those who identify not as “very conservative,” where Greitens runs only 3 points behind Hartzler and Schmitt on average, but who identify as “conservative” – 27% of the electorate – Greitens runs 11 points behind his rivals. Greitens easily defeats either Kunce or Valentine among conservative voters, of course – but by an average of 54 points, as opposed to 65 points on average for Hartzler and Schmitt.
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