Missouri Election Poll: accurate votes, where voters stand

KOAM is partnering with Gray TV in Missouri for a series of polls on a variety of topics ahead of the primary elections. The partnership gives KOAM the rights to exclusively share the poll results with viewers in our local 4-State market.

Today, July 28, 2022, the poll asks several questions related to the following topics:

  • Whether registered voters are likely to vote in the primary
  • Public debates
  • Accurate vote counts
  • Where the voters stand
  • Ways to vote

You can find a summary and full results of the SurveyUSA Election poll below.

>>Related > Find election resources for the 4-States at KOAMNewsNow.com/elections

>>Find other Missouri election polls here

5 Days Until MO GOP Primary Votes Counted, Schmitt Sees Advantage Over Greitens, Hartzler … But an Absent Endorsement Leaves Some Unsure

In Democratic Contest, Trudy Busch Valentine Holds Significant Lead Over Lucas Kunce … But Undecided Voters Again Complicate the Calculus:

Incumbent Attorney General Eric Schmitt is 8 points atop former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens in the Republican primary battle to replace outgoing United States Senator Roy Blunt, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for Gray Television’s Missouri stations (KMOV-TV in St. Louis, KCTV-TV in Kansas City, KYTV-TV in Springfield, KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, WGEM-TV in Quincy, IL; KYOU-TV in Ottumwa, IA) and for KRCG-TV in Jefferson City and KOAM-TV in Pittsburg, KS.

Schmitt takes 28% of the vote today, 07/28/22, 5 days before Primary Day; Greitens takes 20%. Incumbent US Representatives Vicky Hartzler and Billy Long are at 13% and 8%, respectively. Attorney Mark McCloskey is at 4%, State Senator Dave Schatz is at 3%. 4% say they would vote for one of the other Republicans on the ballot; 21% are undecided.

While Schmitt’s lead is relatively small, it is fairly consistent: Schmitt outpolls Greitens among every demographic group and in every part of the state, with 3 exceptions: Greitens leads Schmitt by 10 points in Southeastern Missouri, by 3 points among likely Republican primary voters who rent their homes, and by a nominal point among those who attended some college but have no degree. Schmitt does particularly well in greater St. Louis and in greater Kansas City, where he leads Greitens by 17 points and 14 points, respectively, and among those who say the endorsement of a candidate by Donald Trump – should such an endorsement occur – would make them less likely to vote for a given candidate.

Greitens comes within 2 points of Schmitt among those who identify as “very conservative,” 28% of the electorate. Among the 42% of likely Republican primary voters who identify as “conservative,” Schmitt leads by 14.

Schmitt’s consistent lead notwithstanding, the undecided portion of the electorate may yet swing this contest in a way that significantly impacts these polling results: Former President Donald Trump has, as of press time, not yet endorsed a candidate, and 44% of likely voters in the Republican primary say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate he endorses. 12% say they’d be less likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate; 40% say the endorsement would make no difference. Of note: when SurveyUSA previously polled this primary in May, 57% then said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the former President, and 7% said they’d be more likely vote against such a candidate.

In the Democratic Primary, registered nurse and philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine today takes 40% of the vote; Marine veteran and attorney Lucas Kunce takes 14% of the vote. Other candidates are in single digits, with 28% of likely voters telling SurveyUSA they are undecided. Valentine is ahead by double digits in every demographic group and in all parts of the state. Kunce outperforms his overall numbers among older voters, more liberal voters, and in northern Missouri, but not by enough to close the gap.

Voters in both the Republican and Democratic primaries have bones to pick with candidates who refuse to debate their opponents: 66% of likely primary voters say viable candidates for office should be required to participate in public debates; just 14% say they should not be required to debate. If a candidate does not debate, 62% of likely primary voters say that makes them less likely to vote for that candidate, while 8% say it makes them more likely to vote for them, and 23% say it makes no difference.

Former US Attorney and Jan. 6 Committee Investigative Counsel John Wood, Running as an Independent, May Make Things Interesting This Fall:

Looking ahead to the November general election for United States Senate, SurveyUSA asked likely November voters how they would vote in hypothetical matchups between the leading Republican and Democratic candidates, but with an added wrinkle: the inclusion of John Wood, running as an independent candidate, on the ballot. Should Trudy Busch Valentine be the Democratic nominee …

  • Eric Schmitt 36%, Valentine 30%, Wood 9%. 6% would look to another third-party candidate; 18% are undecided.
  • Vicky Hartzler 32%, Valentine 31%, Wood 9%. 7% would vote for someone else; 21% are undecided.
  • Eric Greitens 31%, Valentine 31%, Wood 10%. 8% vote for someone else; 20% are undecided.

Should Lucas Kunce be the Democratic nominee…

  • Eric Schmitt 37%, Kunce 27%, Wood 10%. 6% vote for another candidate; 20% are undecided.
  • Vicky Hartzler 34%, Kunce 25%, Wood 12%. 9% vote for someone else; 20% are undecided.
  • Eric Greitens 31%, Kunce 26%, Wood 13%. 10% vote for someone else; 21% are undecided.

Full results follow … (or click here)

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll - July 28, 2022

About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 Missouri adults online 07/24/22 through 07/27/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 1,981 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 787 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/02/22 Republican primary; 547 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/02/22 Democratic primary; 1,591 were determined to be likely to vote in the November 8 general election. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.