Mild Monday with some returning rain chances late – Nick

More rain chances lined up for this week & a look at the holiday weekend

Good early Monday morning, everyone. Another May weekend has come to a close across the area. After dealing with t-storms late Friday night/early Saturday morning and stubborn areas of drizzle and showers Saturday afternoon, it was nice to keep things dry for our Sunday. Even with mostly cloudy skies in the morning, partly to mostly sunny skies allowed temperatures to go from the middle 40s Sunday morning into the lower to middle 60s across much of the area for the afternoon. While high pressure over Iowa kept us quiet, it’s moving off to the east. That will allow a surface low and upper-level low from the west to head our way and change our weather up once again as we get this week going.


While we kept skies mostly clear through our Sunday evening, we’re expecting some partly cloudy skies to start returning by the time the AM drive gets going. Otherwise, it will be a bit cool to start the day out with lows in the upper 40s.


Throughout the day, the approaching upper-level energy will lead to partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies across the area. While much of the area will be dry for the day, we’ll watch for some isolated showers and t-storms in our western counties after 3 or 4 o’clock in the afternoon. Even with the increasing clouds and some returning rain chances, temperatures will stay mild with highs in the lower to middle 60s.


What may start out as a few isolated showers and t-storms this evening will turn into increasing rain chances through the night and into Tuesday morning. Look at the Future Track below. Indications do show increasing coverage of expected showers and t-storms as more moisture, lift and energy get pulled into the area. While nothing severe is expected, these projected returns suggest periods of moderate to heavy rain with the strongest showers and t-storms.


The periods of widespread rain and t-storms will continue through Tuesday as the upper-level low begins to work into the Central Plains. Even with all the clouds and the rain chances, an advancing warm front from the south will keep temperatures mild with highs in the middle to upper 60s across much of the region.


While we aren’t too concerned about severe weather with the returning t-storm chances through Tuesday, the expected rain amounts are another story. While much of our Monday will be dry, the increasing rain chances between this evening and Tuesday afternoon could quickly add up. While some areas may not see more than half an inch by the start of Tuesday evening, a good number of us could see amounts between 1 and 3 inches by that time. If we can’t spread out these rain chances, we’ll have to watch for some possible flooding concerns by Tuesday.


This incoming storm system is going to take its time working across the region as we head into the middle of the week. With continued scattered t-storm chances and mostly cloudy skies, highs will stay in the middle 60s for Wednesday. The departing system could still bring a few isolated t-storms to a few areas in southwest Missouri on Thursday. Otherwise, we’ll have partly sunny skies take us back into the lower 70s for Thursday afternoon. Have a look at how Friday is looking below as the holiday weekend gets going.


The departing system and returning jet stream means we’ll have mostly sunny skies and a light breeze take us back into the lower 80s for afternoon highs on Friday. Heading into Saturday, there will be a weak wave that will pass along the jet stream. Current indications show that this could lead to a few isolated t-storms for Saturday morning. Aside from that, we’ll have partly sunny skies for Saturday with much of the area staying dry through the day. With the jet to the north, we’ll have highs back in the middle 80s for Saturday.


Beyond Saturday, we’ll still be on the warmer side of the jet as we stay dry for Sunday. However, mostly cloudy skies will try to work in for Sunday. That will keep highs in the lower 80s across the area. Don’t forget that Doug has your long range forecast from the remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend through the middle of June down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!


May 30th-June 4th:  Warm temperatures all week long. T-storm chances possible for Memorial Day and Tuesday. We’ll also watch for t-storm chances with a severe threat Wednesday and Thursday. Slight t-storm chances with a severe threat for Friday before more scattered t-storms with another severe threat for our Saturday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm temperatures all week long. Slight t-storm chances on Monday. Watching a severe threat with t-storms on Wednesday. T-storms on Thursday followed by a dry Friday and another severe threat with Saturday’s t-storms.

June 12th-18th:  Warm Sunday followed by a hot period Monday through Wednesday. Warm for the remainder of the week. T-storm chances with a severe threat Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. A higher severe threat with t-storms on Thursday before we dry out for the weekend.