Mild and breezy Monday lined up for us – Nick

Changes still set to roll in for the middle of the week

Good late Sunday evening, everyone. As advertised, we kept nice and quiet as we wrapped up the weekend today. After yesterday’s lows in the upper 30s and highs in the lower 60s, we dropped back into the lower 40s this morning. Once we got the sun back in action, that and the southerly breeze gusting near 20 mph at times sent highs to 73° in Joplin and lower 70s across much of the area.


We’ll repeat this mild afternoon once again for Monday before changes send temperatures back down later this week. There hasn’t been a big change in our weather setup at the surface. High pressure systems over southern Mississippi and eastern Kentucky continue to keep our southerly wind in place. That will keep us chilly for the night and mild again for our Monday. Our next storm system, however, is now working across the Upper Midwest, Northern Plains and the Rockies.


Looking upstairs at the jet stream level, we still have our upper-level ridge in control. Once it starts sliding off to the east for Tuesday and the middle of the week, that’s when upper-level energy will push our next storm system in here.


In the short term, we’ll continue with mostly clear skies for the rest of the night. With a south wind at 5-15  mph and the occasional gust near 20, we’ll have most areas drop back into the lower 50s by the time the Monday AM drive gets underway. Some upper 40s are possible as you work closer to Grand Lake, Table Rock Lake and the Missouri/Arkansas state line.


Once we get the sun to come back up, mostly sunny skies in the morning and the southerly breeze will push us into the upper 60s by the noon hour. Even with partly sunny skies planning on returning during the afternoon, the south breeze at 10-20 mph (gusts near 25 at times) will push highs back near 73° across much of the area.


Once we get into Tuesday, the front starts working in from the northwest. With some upper-level energy riding in along the jet, that will set us up with mostly cloudy skies and some scattered showers for Tuesday. That will force highs to drop back into the middle 60s across the area.


During Tuesday, an upper-level low will develop out across the Rockies. For Wednesday, it will move into the region. With the front still in play, Wednesday is looking like a cloudy day with our best shot for scattered rain and t-storms across much of the area. This also won’t allow much room for temperatures to warm up. We’ll start Tuesday out in the upper 50s and see highs only top out in the upper 60s ahead of the cold front. From the latest look at the setup, we’ll have scattered showers and t-storms building during the day and really work through during the evening hours.


While the rain chances Tuesday and t-storm chances Wednesday & early Thursday morning aren’t looking too heavy or severe, we could certainly see some accumulating rainfall between half an inch and an inch across the area.


After a few t-storms early in the morning on Veterans Day, we’ll dry out and stay with partly sunny skies throughout the day. Behind the front, though, you can see how an upper-level low across the Upper Midwest will force the jet stream back to our south. That will lead to lows in the upper 40s for Thursday morning and highs in the upper 50s.


Once we get into next weekend, the projected Future Track setup for Saturday shows how our weather will look. With no immediate systems jumping out, we’ll keep quiet for the coming weekend under partly sunny skies.


While the weekend stays dry, we’ll have highs in the upper 40s for Friday and Saturday before we head back into the middle 50s for that Sunday. We’ll have some cold mornings as well for the weekend. Aside from Saturday morning’s lows in the lower 30s, we’ll have lows for Friday and Sunday morning drop back near 40°. Doug has you covered with his long range forecast through early December (including the Thanksgiving Holiday) down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!


November 15th-20th: Dry for much of the week until some rain chances return Friday and Saturday. We’ll stay on the cool side for Monday and Tuesday. We’ll turn mild Wednesday and stay mild for the rest of the week.

November 21st-27th: Rain chances Sunday and Monday as temperatures stay mild. Chilly Tuesday before we keep cool Wednesday through Saturday. Dry Tuesday before we see rain chances return Wednesday, Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Drying out again by Saturday.

November 28th-December 4th: Up and down temperatures this week. Chilly Sunday with mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Cool Wednesday before we turn mild again Thursday and Friday. Turning much cooler for Saturday. We’ll watch for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A stronger system will give us rain on Thursday, thunderstorms on Friday and a chance for rain or snow by Saturday.