Latest updated blog – Windy, Dry & Mild Monday lined up for us – Nick
Watching a few other systems down the road
Good Sunday evening, everyone. As advertised, we did trend a bit cooler to wrap up our weekend today behind our last cold front that worked on through. Looking at our numbers from Joplin Regional, our highs today ran 15° below our highs in the middle 70s yesterday. After our cold start in the upper 30s, Joplin topped out at 59° this afternoon. Outside of Joplin, we saw highs range between the upper 50s in southwestern Missouri and lower to middle 60s across our corners of Kansas and Oklahoma.
Looking at our setup for Monday, we have a dry, mild and breezy day ahead of us. That’s a combination that has led to red flag warnings and fire weather watches to go into effect from noon on Monday to 9 o’clock Monday evening.
Breaking things down at the surface level, we have an area of high pressure passing to our southeast and our next frontal system to our northwest. The sliding high and the strengthening low with our next front will really put our southerly wind into action as we go through our Monday.
The jet stream setup upstairs shows that our next upper-level low near Vancouver will continue to work across the Canadian border. While it does stay primarily well to the north of us, it will be strong enough to push that cold front across the Pacific Northwest in here by the time we roll into Tuesday.
Until that front gets here, the southerly wind will pick up a bit through the night and for our Monday morning. With clear skies and a southerly wind at 5-15 mph, that should keep lows in the lower to middle 40s across the region as we get the AM drive started.
With our south wind kicking into gear for the late morning hours and through the afternoon, temperatures will have no problem warming back up under sunny skies across the area. After starting the afternoon out with temperatures in the middle 60s, we’ll see highs push into the lower 70s across much of the region. It’s not out of the question for some of our far western areas to push into the middle 70s before the afternoon is all said and done.
Looking deeper into our setup for Monday, though, shows the mild temperatures being just one piece of the puzzle leading to our red flag warnings and fire weather watches. Throughout the day, we’ll see relative humidity values range between 25% and 35%. Those numbers alone show quite a dry air mass in place.
The third piece of the puzzle will be the wind speeds out of the south throughout the day. While we start the day with a south wind at 5-15 mph in the morning, we’ll push the sustained wind speeds between 10 & 20 mph at the noon hour and 15 to 25 mph for the afternoon. Those numbers certainly reflect what the wind tracker below is showing. We’ll even have wind gusts around that could push between 30 and 40 mph during the peak of the afternoon.
Even with the red flag warnings and fire weather watches expiring at 9 PM, we’ll hold onto a south wind at 15-25 mph Monday night as we start to see more moisture ahead of our cold front result in partly cloudy skies for Tuesday morning. As we start to see more moisture pull in ahead of the front, we’ll turn mostly cloudy for Tuesday as temperatures stay mild with highs in the middle 60s. With some extra moisture trying to pull in along and behind the front, we’ll keep an eye out for scattered rain and t-storm chances for our southeastern counties starting late Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night.
After this system ends with a few showers early Wednesday morning, we’ll keep quiet for Wednesday and Thursday with mostly sunny skies returning. Behind the front, though, we will find ourselves on the cooler side of the jet. That will keep highs in the middle 50s for both days and lows on the cold side. We could start in the upper 30s for Wednesday morning and near freezing by Thursday morning. Fortunately, we do start turning mild again for the upcoming Easter Weekend. With us back on the milder side of the jet, we’ll see highs push into the middle 60s on Friday under partly sunny skies. A weak disturbance wanting to ride along the jet could bring some scattered rain chances in here for Friday night and early Saturday morning.
Once that wave for late Friday and early Saturday morning clear out, the latest indications show us staying mostly sunny for Saturday and partly sunny for Easter Sunday. With a projected upper-level ridge overhead for Saturday and Easter Sunday, that should mean highs in the middle 60s for Saturday and upper 60s to near 70° for Eastern Sunday.
You can see by Easter Sunday, though, that we have another upper-level low that we’ll keep an eye on as we go into our first full week of April. Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll watch for that to possibly bring rain chances in on that Monday and other rain chances throughout parts of the week. You can see how we look for the month of April with Doug’s long range forecast down below.
Have a good night and a great Monday!
April 5th-April 10th: We’ll watch for a storm system with rain and t-storm chances for our chilly Monday, then we dry out for a couple of days. Thunderstorm chances on Thursday. Some of those could be on the stronger side. Dry and mild into the weekend.
April 11th-April 17th: Mainly a mild week until a brief cooldown late in the week. We will have slight chances for thunderstorms most of the week with the best shot on Thursday that could be strong to severe. Cooler for the weekend.
April 18th-April 24th: Temperatures look mild Sunday through Wednesday before we turn warmer for Thursday and into the weekend. Aside from t-storms on Tuesday, much of the week looks dry.
April 25th-May 1st: A stretch of several waves with showers and thunderstorms from Sunday through Thursday. We will have chances for severe thunderstorms on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday. We do dry out heading into the weekend but we need to watch Sunday May 2nd.