Latest updated blog – Watching t-storm chances for today – Nick

Before we can enjoy a lengthy dry stretch next week
Satplanner

Good Saturday morning, everyone. We managed to enjoy a quiet evening yesterday and a mostly dry start to the morning. We have been keeping an eye on a few showers that have tried to pop up this morning, but most of you are starting off quiet this morning. Even though we’ve enjoyed a break in the rain since the storms late Thursday night and early Friday morning, that stubborn cold front is still draped across the Four State Region.

Surfacemap

Not only that, we have another upper level wave coming out of the Rocky Mountains and working east today.

Upperwave

These two won’t spawn any t-storms to start the day out. While we can’t rule out a few showers to start your Saturday morning out, most of you are starting mostly cloudy and chilly with lows in the upper 50s to near 60.

Satam

Even though skies stay mostly cloudy for the day, we’ll have a southeast wind push temperatures back into the lower to middle 70s by lunchtime.

Satnoon

For the afternoon, we’ll have the front and the upper level wave spark scattered t-storms across the area. Before they do, we’ll have afternoon highs topping out in the middle to upper 70s across the region.

Sat1pmhighs

Once we warm up enough by late in the afternoon, that’s when we’ll have scattered t-storms take us through the rest of the day. Fortunately, we’re not looking at a severe setup for this afternoon. Still, we’re not going to rule out some strong t-storms as we proceed through the rest of the afternoon.

Sataftn

This evening and the start of tonight will have us with the rain gear handy as we continue with our scattered rain and t-storms. This setup will start to drop temperatures into the middle to upper 60s by the 10 o’clock hour.

Satnite

As we head into the rest of the night and into Sunday morning, the cold front and the upper level wave will finally start pushing off to the east. As both systems start to clear the area, we’ll get rid of our rain and t-storms by the time we hit sunrise Sunday morning. The rain and the clouds won’t allow us to start on a chilly note for Sunday morning. We should start the day in the lower 60s.

Sundayam

While the start to the weekend was less than ideal with clouds, rain and t-storms, we can at least enjoy a dry and mild Sunday under partly sunny skies. With a light north breeze at 5-10 mph, we’ll have a nice Sunday afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.

Sundaypm

By the time we dry out for Sunday, we’ll take advantage of it once we get past another round of accumulating rainfall for Saturday. We already have too much rain just from the last round alone. While rain amounts area-wide could average between a quarter and half an inch, any spots that can get a good t-storm with moderate to heavy rain could see rain amounts push up to an inch and a half to almost 2 inches.

Futurerain

Fortunately, we’ll have a good dry stretch to start the upcoming week with. We’ll stay quiet under partly to mostly sunny skies next Monday through next Wednesday. Monday will stay mild with highs in the lower 70s before we go back into the upper 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Sticking with Doug’s pattern, though, we’ll get active again as we work into the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. We’ll have the chance for isolated t-storms on Friday that could bring a low severe threat back in here. We’ll stick with a low severe threat for that Sunday before the severe threat ramps up for Memorial Day.

4weekthreat

We’ll be busy keeping an eye on a moderate severe threat from Memorial Day through that following Wednesday before we calm down a little by the 28th. Once we get past the final weekend of the month with a low severe threat for Saturday and a moderate threat for Sunday, our severe weather season will start to wind down as we roll into June. For the long range forecast, Doug has you covered through the 4th of July down below.

Have a great Saturday!

Nick

Long range forecast into the middle of June:

Next Saturday:  Well stay warm for Saturday with highs back into the lower 80s. However, we’ll have t-storm chances and a low severe threat to keep an eye on.

May 24th-30th:  Scattered thunderstorms with several waves from Sunday through Wednesday.  Severe threat each day with warm temperatures.  The highest severe threat will be on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

May 31st-June 6th: Mainly a hot week and mainly dry.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday with a low severe threat.

June 7th-13th:  A hot start with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday with a severe threat each of those day.

June 14th-20th:  Mainly a warm week with scattered thunderstorms on Sunday.  Scattered thunderstorms with our next system on Tuesday.  Then scattered thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday.  Severe threats Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 21st-27th:  Warm on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and mainly dry.  Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday  with hot temperatures.  Some of those could be strong to severe.  Warm and dry heading into the weekend.

June 28th-July 4th:  A hot start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some of those could be severe on Wednesday.  Warm on Thursday and Friday but hot temps back in for the 4th.  Also, thunderstorm chances on the 4th.

July 5th-11th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for storms on Wednesday.  Better chances for scattered storms on Friday and Saturday.

#headypattern