Latest updated blog – Watching strong to severe t-storm potential late Saturday – Nick

Warm Saturday before we cool down for Mother's Day
Satplanner

Good Friday evening, everyone. Even though we had to start the weekend out with mostly cloudy skies and some scattered rain and t-storms late this morning and into this afternoon, we did see temperatures rebound nicely after quite a cool start this morning. Even though we didn’t get quite as warm as the upper 60s that we saw yesterday, we did climb back into the middle 60s after we dropped to near 40° this morning.

36hrtrend

We have a change in our weather setup that will keep some rain and t-storm chances in the forecast at times for the rest of the weekend. Looking at the surface setup below, we have our next warm front working in from the west. That will serve as a focal point for additional scattered t-storms during the overnight hours and into Saturday morning while the trailing cold front out to the west will bring additional t-storm chances in for late Saturday night.

Surfacemap

Looking at the upper-level setup below, we will sneak back under the upper-level ridge working out of the Texas Panhandle. That will send highs back into the upper 70s and lower 80s for our Saturday afternoon before additional energy from the upper-level low in the Pacific Northwest will also aid the cold front in our t-storm and rain chances for Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

Jetsetup

Looking at the rest of the night, we’ll have temperatures either holding steady or just dropping off a few more degrees as our warm front starts to sweep through. While the front starts to work in, we’ll see additional scattered showers and t-storms start to develop on the more stable side of the front.

Fri11pm

Our rain and t-storm chances during the overnight will be focused from a region stretching from Yates Center to Fort Scott, Stockton Lake and down to Branson. These storms could pack a little bit of a punch with some heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty wind speeds. However, we aren’t expecting this activity overnight to turn severe.

Sat3am

Once we get to sunrise, we’ll see a break in the action as skies turn partly cloudy. It will be a chilly start this time around as lows only drop back into the middle to upper 50s with a southeast breeze at 5-15 mph.

Satamstart

While we won’t rule out a few random showers late in the morning, the vast majority of the day will be dry and warm under partly sunny skies. With a south breeze kicking in at 15-25 mph during the day, that will push us into the middle 70s by lunchtime and into the lower 80s for our Saturday afternoon.

Sataftn

While we do start Saturday evening out on a dry note, we’ll keep an eye out toward central Kansas by late evening. Strong to severe t-storms that will develop in central Kansas will mainly want to ride along the I-70 corridor toward Topeka and Kansas City late in the night. However, look at the projected radar output by 10 PM.

Sat10pm

As we approach midnight heading into Sunday morning, the majority of the strong to severe t-storms want to stay to our north. That being said, the southern edge of the storms want to work across our far northern counties affecting areas north of KS 39 and from Liberal to Jerico Springs northward on the MO side. That’s something we’ll keep a close eye on as we work into the overnight hours as our Saturday comes to a close.

Sunmidnite

With the advancing cold front coming in from the west and northwest, we’ll have additional scattered rain work in for parts of the area as we work closer to sunrise on our Mother’s Day. Once we hit 3 or 4 AM, any chances we have for strong to severe t-storms will be to the east of the region across central Missouri.

Sun3am

To sum up our strong to severe t-storm chances for late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, we’ll keep an eye on the t-storm chances between 9 PM and 3 AM. That’s going to be the prime time for t-storms clipping our area to produce some large hail, high wind and heavy rainfall. Unless we see another major shift in how the storms move late Saturday night, any strong to severe t-storms will mainly clip our northern counties. This is a setup that we’ll continue to watch closely as we work through our Saturday.

Satthreat

No matter how the t-storm chances play out for the overnight hours Saturday and into Sunday, the passing cold front will give us a mostly cloudy start with scattered showers across parts of the area. It will be a bit chilly as well as lows drop back into the lower to middle 60s.

Sun7am

Once we get past our rain chances Sunday morning, we’ll have a dry Sunday afternoon to wrap up our Mother’s Day. However, mostly cloudy skies and a northerly breeze behind the cold front will lead to temperatures dropping back below normal as highs will mainly top out around 70° for the afternoon.

Sun4pm

After we enjoy some dry time Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night, the upper-level low to our northwest has a few more tricks up its sleeve. With it keeping the jet stream to our south, we’ll stay cooler than normal for Monday as a new work/school week gets underway with highs around 60°. In addition to that, it will send some more lift and energy our way to keep mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers in the forecast for Monday.

Monjet

For Tuesday and Wednesday, we’ll remain under the influence of that stubborn upper-level low. However, its journey across the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest will allow for a bit of a bump in our temperatures during each afternoon. While we do expect highs to top out in the lower to middle 60s for both Tuesday and Wednesday, the low will keep mostly cloudy skies and a chance for scattered showers in place for each day.

Wedjet

Fortunately, that upper-low will move on and allow our skies to brighten up as we hit the end of the week. With partly sunny skies and the returning jet, we’ll see highs in the upper 60s on Thursday and the upper 70s for Friday.

Frijet

If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month and much of June (including additional t-storm chances & severe threats), Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Saturday!

Nick

 

 

Next Saturday:  Staying warm with t-storm chances around.

May 16th-May 22nd: Warm with thunderstorm chances from Sunday through Tuesday.  These could be strong to severe.  Another event in on Thursday and Friday.  Cooling back down a bit into the weekend.

May 23rd-May 29th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms and a severe threat Sunday through Tuesday.  Warming up late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  Some of those as well could be strong to severe.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.